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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Wed, 25 Feb 2009
NGM Model being Retired Next Week!
For you weather model lovers, the NGM model (Nested Grid Model), the major weather model of the late 1980s and early 1990s will be run for the last time on March 3, 2009. At the time of its introduction (I think in 1987), the NGM model was considered a large improvement over the earlier model, the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh Model) . Further improvement of the NGM model was discontinued in 1991 and the then-new Eta model was developed shortly thereafter and fine tuned during the late 1990s up until 2006. In May 2006, the Eta was futher modified by physics of the WRF model and was renamed the NAM.

Despite it's age, the NGM was still run twice a day to the present time. It's statistical version, the NGM-MOS was also used in a number of forecasting products.
The NGM model is being retired because it has been surplanted by the more recent WRF-NAM (Weather Research Forecasting-North American Mesoscale) and GFS (Global Forecast System) models in recent years.
It was always fun to look at this model output. The model wasn't bad, but wasn't that good either. Numerical weather forecasting and modeling has come a long way since 1987. I still found that the NGM was very good at predicting clearing skies after a cold frontal passage and sometimes did better at predicting cloud cover.
More information can be found at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/changes/ngmremove_mdl.php

posted: Feb 25 2009 at 6:15 pm

[/general] permanent link

Philadelphia Weather Outlook- Wed AM
A warm but moist southwesterly flow will bring milder temps to our area today through early Saturday, ahead of a low pressure system that will move through later Friday with rain.
The front associated with the Friday low stalls to our south and low pressure develops along the front, moving up the coast Saturday into Sunday. Exact position of this system will determine rain or snow, and there are questions of timing, but right now, it looks like rain ending in some light snow. Will watch this.
Right now, Saturday is a transitional day, with Sunday being the stormier one. This is a change from yesterday and the details are still uncertain.
March comes in like a lion on Monday.
Sat 2/28: tentative: Cloudy and unsettled. Chance of light showers, mostly dry. High 40, falling into the 30s.
Sun 3/1: tentative: Cloudy with a chance of sleet or rain, changing to snow at night. High 37.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy

posted: Feb 25 2009 at 7:48 am

[/weather/feb09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 25 Feb 2009 NGM Model being Retired Next Week! For you weather model lovers, the NGM model (Nested Grid Model), the major weather model of the late 1980s and early 1990s will be run for the last time on March 3, 2009. At the time of its introduction (I think in 1987), the NGM model was considered a large improvement over the earlier model, the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh Model) . Further improvement of the NGM model was discontinued in 1991 and the then-new Eta model was developed shortly thereafter and fine tuned during the late 1990s up until 2006. In May 2006, the Eta was futher modified by physics of the WRF model and was renamed the NAM. Despite it's age, the NGM was still run twice a day to the present time. It's statistical version, the NGM-MOS was also used in a number of forecasting products. The NGM model is being retired because it has been surplanted by the more recent WRF-NAM (Weather Research Forecasting-North American Mesoscale) and GFS (Global Forecast System) models in recent years. It was always fun to look at this model output. The model wasn't bad, but wasn't that good either. Numerical weather forecasting and modeling has come a long way since 1987. I still found that the NGM was very good at predicting clearing skies after a cold frontal passage and sometimes did better at predicting cloud cover. More information can be found at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/changes/ngmremove_mdl.php posted: Feb 25 2009 at 6:15 pm [/general] permanent link Philadelphia Weather Outlook- Wed AM A warm but moist southwesterly flow will bring milder temps to our area today through early Saturday, ahead of a low pressure system that will move through later Friday with rain. The front associated with the Friday low stalls to our south and low pressure develops along the front, moving up the coast Saturday into Sunday. Exact position of this system will determine rain or snow, and there are questions of timing, but right now, it looks like rain ending in some light snow. Will watch this. Right now, Saturday is a transitional day, with Sunday being the stormier one. This is a change from yesterday and the details are still uncertain. March comes in like a lion on Monday. Sat 2/28: tentative: Cloudy and unsettled. Chance of light showers, mostly dry. High 40, falling into the 30s. Sun 3/1: tentative: Cloudy with a chance of sleet or rain, changing to snow at night. High 37. See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy posted: Feb 25 2009 at 7:48 am [/weather/feb09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.