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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 17 Oct 2008
Winter Climate Prediction
With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter.
Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle.
The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23.
Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had.
With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years.
There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information.
By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere.

posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm

[/general] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
The models continue to show the development of low pressure to our south and east Friday night, too far offshore to affect us except for some cloudiness for Saturday (BUT showers possible Jersey shore and Delaware) Cold high pressure will dominate our area later Saturday into Sunday.
Sat 10/18: Partly cloudy northwest of the city, considerable cloudiness south and east with a chance of a shower south and east of the city. High 65.
Sun 10/19: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 62.

posted: Oct 17 2008 at 5:41 am

[/weather/oct08] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 17 Oct 2008 Winter Climate Prediction With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter. Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle. The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23. Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had. With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years. There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information. By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere. posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm [/general] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM The models continue to show the development of low pressure to our south and east Friday night, too far offshore to affect us except for some cloudiness for Saturday (BUT showers possible Jersey shore and Delaware) Cold high pressure will dominate our area later Saturday into Sunday. Sat 10/18: Partly cloudy northwest of the city, considerable cloudiness south and east with a chance of a shower south and east of the city. High 65. Sun 10/19: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 62. posted: Oct 17 2008 at 5:41 am [/weather/oct08] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.