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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
   

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  • Glenn F Schreiber
    aka "theweatherguy"

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    Fri, 17 Oct 2008

    Winter Climate Prediction
    With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter.

    Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle.

    The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23.

    Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had.

    With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years.

    There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information.

    By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere.

    posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm

    [/general] permanent link

    Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
    The models continue to show the development of low pressure to our south and east Friday night, too far offshore to affect us except for some cloudiness for Saturday (BUT showers possible Jersey shore and Delaware) Cold high pressure will dominate our area later Saturday into Sunday.

    Sat 10/18: Partly cloudy northwest of the city, considerable cloudiness south and east with a chance of a shower south and east of the city. High 65.

    Sun 10/19: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 62.

    posted: Oct 17 2008 at 5:41 am

    [/weather/oct08] permanent link



    Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

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