theweatherguy's website
Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
About this blog
theweatherguy's website,
"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."
aka "theweatherguy"
Copy link for RSS feed
These are a few of my favorite links. Meteorology Glossary
Weather Archives:
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
12: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
11: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
10: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
09: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
07: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
06: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Commentary:
Miscellaneous
Fri, 24 Jan 2014
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
The cold cyclonic flow continues.....
A reinforcing cold front moves through during the day on Saturday. An upper air disturbance will provide enough lift to allow snow showers and light snow to fall during frontal passage. Models are predicting as much as 2-3 inches of snow, although a coating to 1 inch is most likely with these clipper systems.
Skies clear Sunday morning, but another weak upper air disturbance approaches late in the day, bring some clouds. Only flurries are expected with this second disturbance. Very cold weather continues for the coming week!
Sat 1/25: Cloudy, becoming windy with light snow possible. An inch or coating most likely, but 2-3 inches possible. High 30.
Sun 1/26: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. High 20.
posted: Jan 24 2014 at 9:28 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Tue, 21 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 11 AM
This morning's NAM model maintains a QPF of close to 0.60 inches water. The GFS has about 0.50 inches water. The experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh shows a total snowfall of about 6-10 inches. So the snowfall total in the immediate PHL area most likely about 8 inches, maybe 10.
posted: Jan 21 2014 at 11:10 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Mon, 20 Jan 2014Weather Hype!
So what's the story with the TV weather people only talking about Wind Chill Temperatures instead of forecast air temperature. Isn't there enough hype with the weather already? Apparently, they learned nothing from ruining the Philadelphia Flower Show last year. Their hype has never been more exaggerative. I think it's shameful.
posted: Jan 20 2014 at 7:27 pm
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update - Mon 12 Noon
There has been a major shift in the computer models, with a general consensus now that low pressure will develop off the coast after an arctic frontal passage early Tuesday.
The GFS and NAM models are in rare early agreement that the developing coastal low pressure will have a surface reflection westward over southeastern PA and that 4-7 inches of snow is possible. (Latest models show about 0.45- 0.50 inches water equivalent falling in the immediate PHL area.) Strong winds and frigid temps will accompany this snowfall.
With all models showing snow, there is a higher confidence in this event. That said, this snow event didn't exist on the models just a day ago.
posted: Jan 20 2014 at 12:09 pm
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Sun, 12 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update- Sun Noon
The models haven't done too well lately on specifics- Friday was much colder and wetter than expected; Saturday was very wet, but not the 1-2 inches of rain that had been forecast; today, Sunday, has much more stratocumulus clouds than had been predicted; some sun still expected.
Looking at the general model trends, the next two days may be the only "January Thaw" we get! (The January Thaw usually occurs during the last 10 days of January.) The current GFS and extended GFS models continue to show a re-development of the deep upper air trough by the end of the week. That cold pattern continues for the next two weeks with even a deeper cold arctic outbreak expected.
There's also the possibility of light snow Wednesday morning as an upper air disturbance spawns low pressure ahead of the advancing arctic front.
posted: Jan 12 2014 at 12:39 pm
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Fri, 10 Jan 2014Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
The roller coaster ride of temperatures this winter continues this weekend. A southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring warmer temperatures and rain, possibly heavy.
Following the cold front, temperatures will lower, but will still be well above normal on Sunday, through the middle of the week, when more seasonable temperatures return. (Average high temp this time of year is 39.)
Sat 1/11: Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy late afternoon and evening. Chance of a thunderstorm! Very mild, high 62.
Sun 1/12: Sunny and continued fairly mild. High 49.
posted: Jan 10 2014 at 8:57 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
The roller coaster ride of temperatures this winter continues this weekend. A southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring warmer temperatures and rain, possibly heavy.
Following the cold front, temperatures will lower, but will still be well above normal on Sunday, through the middle of the week, when more seasonable temperatures return. (Average high temp this time of year is 39.)
Sat 1/11: Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy late afternoon and evening. Chance of a thunderstorm! Very mild, high 62.
Sun 1/12: Sunny and continued fairly mild. High 49.
posted: Jan 10 2014 at 8:56 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Sat, 04 Jan 2014Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast 2014
My Winter Weather Outlook, first posted November 12th, still appears to be on-track.
Basically, I'm calling for overall below normal temperatures (despite global warming) and large swings in temperature. Significant number of storms, but many of the "warm front" variety where snow turns to rain, freezing rain or ice.
Check out the original posting for more background.
The weather of the next two weeks will be representative: following a warmup this weekend, we enter a deep freeze with several chances of snow or ice. Expect another warmup about January 9th.
posted: Jan 04 2014 at 8:32 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM
High pressure giving us this cold weather will depart today, as the upper air flow changes to the southwest, bringing moisture and clouds on Sunday ahead of another arctic cold front moving in on Monday.
Sat 1/4: Sunny and still cold. High 29 (Eagles game time should be about 28 degrees)
Sun 1/5: Mostly cloudy with increasing chance of light rain towards evening. Slight chance that earlier sprinkles could be freezing rain before the relative warmup. High 43 by late afternoon.
posted: Jan 04 2014 at 7:54 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Thu, 02 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update- Thur 8 PM
The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model has 6-8 inches of snow for the general PHL area.
posted: Jan 02 2014 at 8:02 pm
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update- Thur 11 AM
This morning's raw model data just available. Very similar QPF values, with the GFS now cranking out slightly more than the NAM model- about 0.45- 0.50 inches water equivalent. With temperatures expected to be so low, a ratio of 1:15 or higher is possible. 4-6 inches light powdery snow likely and if the QPF value is correct with a higher snow-water ratio- we could get 7-9 inches.
No major data updates expected until later this afternoon or 9 PM this evening.
posted: Jan 02 2014 at 10:57 am
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Wed, 01 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update - Wed 12 PM
Happy New Year!
Low pressure in the Midwest is expected to spawn secondary cyclogenesis off the coastline and then merge with the secondary low. The fine features of this dynamic process are notoriously difficult to model, but the models have consistently shown the following features: 1. a "donut hole" with a lack of precipitation over the immediate PHL area during the day Thursday, 2. most of the development far enough east off the coast that we miss the heaviest precipitation 3. due to the eastward track, we are in the cold sector of the storm 4. any precipitation that is forecast here is the result of rapid intensification of the low center, expansion of the areal coverage westward and wrap-around snow.
Each of these features are difficult to model correctly, so confidence that any or all of these features will verify is not that high.
That said, the latest NAM and GFS models crank out a QPF of between 0.40 and 0.50 inches of water. With temperatures expected to be in the 20s, a high water to snow ratio is expected. So I'm raising the expected snowfall amount to 4-6 inches with higher amounts possible, based on the current predicted QPF. The timing has been consistent- starting about 6PM Thursday and continuing to about daybreak on Friday. I'll update later this evening.
posted: Jan 01 2014 at 12:52 pm
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.