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Philly Winter Weather Update- Wed PM
The latest NAM model cranks out a QPF of over 0.40 inches water, translating to about 4-6, maybe 7 inches light powdery accumulation, with higher amounts in NJ. The NAM shows snow starting a bit earlier.
There is some consistency with this model run and earlier GFS model runs. This remains a dynamic situation, and changes in either direction are possible.
posted: Jan 01 2014 at 9:43 pm
[/weather/jan13] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update - Wed 12 PM
Happy New Year!
Low pressure in the Midwest is expected to spawn secondary cyclogenesis off the coastline and then merge with the secondary low. The fine features of this dynamic process are notoriously difficult to model, but the models have consistently shown the following features: 1. a "donut hole" with a lack of precipitation over the immediate PHL area during the day Thursday, 2. most of the development far enough east off the coast that we miss the heaviest precipitation 3. due to the eastward track, we are in the cold sector of the storm 4. any precipitation that is forecast here is the result of rapid intensification of the low center, expansion of the areal coverage westward and wrap-around snow.
Each of these features are difficult to model correctly, so confidence that any or all of these features will verify is not that high.
That said, the latest NAM and GFS models crank out a QPF of between 0.40 and 0.50 inches of water. With temperatures expected to be in the 20s, a high water to snow ratio is expected. So I'm raising the expected snowfall amount to 4-6 inches with higher amounts possible, based on the current predicted QPF. The timing has been consistent- starting about 6PM Thursday and continuing to about daybreak on Friday. I'll update later this evening.
posted: Jan 01 2014 at 12:52 pm
[/weather/jan14] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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