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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Tue, 02 Jun 2009
Philadelphia Weather Discussion
The cooler temperature spring that I've been writing about since March is still with us and it's likely that this cooler than normal and somewhat damp climate pattern will remain with us through the summer. Solar activity and sunspot levels remains unusually low and solar flux and total solar irradiance remains at a low level. There have been recent signs of the start of the next sunspot cycle (Cycle 24) and there is another single sunspot that has emerged, so we're beginning to see a slow upswing in solar flux level. Nonetheless, it will take awhile for things to return to the level seen a few years ago.
So continue to expect an overall cooler season.
In addition to the cooler temperatures and wetter conditions, the computer models have been doing poorly and I'm repeatedly surprised at how unreliable the forecasting models have been this year. The GFS continues to be better than the NAM model, but not as reliable as in past seasons. The NAM model has become almost useless, as far as I'm concerned. I know that the change in the model physics for the NAM that was introduced 3 years ago was supposed to improve things, but frankly, it seems that the model just isn't working. I'm sure that the scientists at the NCEP are aware of the problem.
The weekend looks mostly dry at this time. I'll update soon.

posted: Jun 02 2009 at 7:35 am

[/weather/jun09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Tue, 02 Jun 2009 Philadelphia Weather Discussion The cooler temperature spring that I've been writing about since March is still with us and it's likely that this cooler than normal and somewhat damp climate pattern will remain with us through the summer. Solar activity and sunspot levels remains unusually low and solar flux and total solar irradiance remains at a low level. There have been recent signs of the start of the next sunspot cycle (Cycle 24) and there is another single sunspot that has emerged, so we're beginning to see a slow upswing in solar flux level. Nonetheless, it will take awhile for things to return to the level seen a few years ago. So continue to expect an overall cooler season. In addition to the cooler temperatures and wetter conditions, the computer models have been doing poorly and I'm repeatedly surprised at how unreliable the forecasting models have been this year. The GFS continues to be better than the NAM model, but not as reliable as in past seasons. The NAM model has become almost useless, as far as I'm concerned. I know that the change in the model physics for the NAM that was introduced 3 years ago was supposed to improve things, but frankly, it seems that the model just isn't working. I'm sure that the scientists at the NCEP are aware of the problem. The weekend looks mostly dry at this time. I'll update soon. posted: Jun 02 2009 at 7:35 am [/weather/jun09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.