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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 13 Jun 2009
Weather Update
Incredible rains today were captured well by last night's NAM MOS model which had a 99% chance of rain, a stat not often seen.
I was checking the radar on my iPhone today and it was raining in many places except Center City until evening.
The latest NAM data has a mix of clouds and sun for Sunday. A chance of a late afternoon thunderstorm, but most of the day dry, according to the NAM. High on Sunday about 80.
The uncertainty with the upcoming weather forecast continues. The earlier part of the week ahead was expected to be dry. Now, showers are expected as early as Monday.

posted: Jun 13 2009 at 11:13 pm

[/weather/jun09] permanent link

Weather Update
Last night's NAM proved itself. Showers have already broken out around Philadelphia. Earlier than expected but not by much. Clearly, there's uncertainty with today's weather forecast.

posted: Jun 13 2009 at 10:32 am

[/weather/jun09] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update
The NAM has a 100% chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon. The GFS is closer to 60% chance. For me, this will be the final test of the NAM, since it has proved worthless for much of the season. The GFS has broken clouds today with the most likely time for showers and thunderstorms between 4 PM and 8 PM. The easterly wind flow will keep things cooler than average.
A mix of sun and clouds for Sunday, but dry weather expected.
Sat 6/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Scattered thundershowers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80
Sun 6/14: Partly sunny. Cloudiness increases in the late afternoon. High 80.

As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.

posted: Jun 13 2009 at 8:49 am

[/weather/jun09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 13 Jun 2009 Weather Update Incredible rains today were captured well by last night's NAM MOS model which had a 99% chance of rain, a stat not often seen. I was checking the radar on my iPhone today and it was raining in many places except Center City until evening. The latest NAM data has a mix of clouds and sun for Sunday. A chance of a late afternoon thunderstorm, but most of the day dry, according to the NAM. High on Sunday about 80. The uncertainty with the upcoming weather forecast continues. The earlier part of the week ahead was expected to be dry. Now, showers are expected as early as Monday. posted: Jun 13 2009 at 11:13 pm [/weather/jun09] permanent link Weather Update Last night's NAM proved itself. Showers have already broken out around Philadelphia. Earlier than expected but not by much. Clearly, there's uncertainty with today's weather forecast. posted: Jun 13 2009 at 10:32 am [/weather/jun09] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update The NAM has a 100% chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon. The GFS is closer to 60% chance. For me, this will be the final test of the NAM, since it has proved worthless for much of the season. The GFS has broken clouds today with the most likely time for showers and thunderstorms between 4 PM and 8 PM. The easterly wind flow will keep things cooler than average. A mix of sun and clouds for Sunday, but dry weather expected. Sat 6/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Scattered thundershowers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80 Sun 6/14: Partly sunny. Cloudiness increases in the late afternoon. High 80. As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter. posted: Jun 13 2009 at 8:49 am [/weather/jun09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.