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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
   

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  • Glenn F Schreiber
    aka "theweatherguy"

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    Fri, 12 Jun 2009

    Quick Weather Update
    Latest NAM suggests a wet early afternoon on Saturday.

    posted: Jun 12 2009 at 10:54 pm

    [/weather/jun09] permanent link

    Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM Update
    The forecast has flipped around again, with Sunday being the better of the two weekend days right now. The damp, cooler than normal, unsettled weather of the past week continues into the weekend this time around. The GFS has some showers on Saturday, especially the late afternoon. Sunday should be mostly dry. The easterly wind flow will sock us in. Again, the specifics of this forecast is lower confidence than usual, since the NAM is more optimistic than the GFS for Saturday.

    Sat 6/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Scattered thundershowers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80

    Sun 6/14: Mostly cloudy, more bright spots and breaks of sun than Saturday. Cloudiness increases in the later afternoon. High 83

    As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.

    posted: Jun 12 2009 at 5:51 pm

    [/weather/jun09] permanent link

    Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
    The forecast has flipped around again, with Sunday being the better of the two weekend days right now. The damp, cooler than normal, unsettled weather of the past week continues into the weekend this time around. The GFS has some showers on Saturday, especially the afternoon. Sunday should be dry. The easterly flow will sock us in. Again, the specifics of this forecast is lower confidence than usual.

    Sat 6/13: Mostly cloudy, some brights spots, possible breaks of sun. Showers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80

    Sun 6/14: Mostly cloudy, more bright spots and breaks of sun than Saturday. Cloudiness increases in the later afternoon. High 83

    As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.

    posted: Jun 12 2009 at 6:03 am

    [/weather/jun09] permanent link



    Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

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