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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
   

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  • Glenn F Schreiber
    aka "theweatherguy"

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  •        
    Tue, 02 Feb 2010

    Weather Update - Tues PM [2]
    Latest NAM has backed off on the precipitation for tonight. The latest GFS continues with 0.20 inches water or about 2, maybe 3 inches.

    posted: Feb 02 2010 at 10:42 pm

    [/weather/feb10] permanent link

    Winter Weather Update- Tues PM
    A weak low pressure system will pass off to our south tonight (Tues), and the northern extent of the precipitation field will brush our area. Total QPF values are about 0.15-0.20 inches water. A total of 1-2, possibly 3 inches is possible in our area tonight, about daybreak on Wednesday.

    A more significant low is expected to move up the coast late Friday into Saturday, with greater upper air support and some phasing of the southern and northern jet streams.

    More substantial snowfall (6+ inches) is possible from late Friday into early Saturday afternoon. The rain-snow line will be near or slightly south of Philadelphia, but these variables need to come into better focus. Stay tuned.

    Sat 2/6: Snow in the morning, tapering early afternoon. Partial clearing late. High 32.

    Sun 2/7: Mostly sunny and cold. High 30.

    Solar Climate Discussion Updated 1/30: This past summer
    (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a prolonged lull in solar activity. The sun is beginning to come out of a solar minimum, and there has finally been the long expected increase in solar activity signaling the real beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance continues to be about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, in April 2000.

    Looking at the long range GFS, things aren't looking as cold as I had expected for early February. Not sure if the postulated solar effect is minimal or whether the El Nino effect is trumping any solar effect. I guess we'll see as the winter continues.

    posted: Feb 02 2010 at 8:55 pm

    [/weather/feb10] permanent link

    Weather Update- Tues
    The latest models have 1-3 inches for Philadelphia beginning well before daybreak on Wed and ending in the morning.

    posted: Feb 02 2010 at 1:34 pm

    [/weather/jan10] permanent link



    Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

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