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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
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Sat, 30 Jan 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Sat AM
The steep dome of cold high pressure over the NE will suppress the center of a low pressure system to our south today. The depth and steepness of this dome of high pressure is the best example of expression "it's too cold to snow".
However, the last few runs of the GFS and NAM models have some light precipitation punching through this dome and reaching Philadelphia late afternoon on Saturday. The QPF values vary from 0.04 inches water (NAM) to about 0.13 inches water (GFS). Snow should start 3-4 PM and be over during the early evening.
A light coating of snow is possible (coating to 1 inch) from Philadelphia on south, but northwest and northern suburbs will likely receive a dusting or no accumulation. It wouldn't take much for this forecast to go wrong, but right now the models are consistent with the forecast above.
Sat 1/30: Cloudy and cold. A light coating of snow possible late afternoon Philadelphia and south. High 22.
Sun 1/31: Mostly sunny and cold. High 26.
Solar Climate Discussion Updated 1/30: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a prolonged lull in solar activity. The sun is beginning to come out of a solar minimum, and there has finally been the long expected increase in solar activity signaling the real beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance continues to be about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, in April 2000.
Looking at the long range GFS, things aren't looking as cold as I had expected for early February. Not sure if the postulated solar effect is minimal or whether the El Nino effect is trumping any solar effect. I guess we'll see as the winter continues.

posted: Jan 30 2010 at 8:13 am

[/weather/jan10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 30 Jan 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Sat AM The steep dome of cold high pressure over the NE will suppress the center of a low pressure system to our south today. The depth and steepness of this dome of high pressure is the best example of expression "it's too cold to snow". However, the last few runs of the GFS and NAM models have some light precipitation punching through this dome and reaching Philadelphia late afternoon on Saturday. The QPF values vary from 0.04 inches water (NAM) to about 0.13 inches water (GFS). Snow should start 3-4 PM and be over during the early evening. A light coating of snow is possible (coating to 1 inch) from Philadelphia on south, but northwest and northern suburbs will likely receive a dusting or no accumulation. It wouldn't take much for this forecast to go wrong, but right now the models are consistent with the forecast above. Sat 1/30: Cloudy and cold. A light coating of snow possible late afternoon Philadelphia and south. High 22. Sun 1/31: Mostly sunny and cold. High 26. Solar Climate Discussion Updated 1/30: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a prolonged lull in solar activity. The sun is beginning to come out of a solar minimum, and there has finally been the long expected increase in solar activity signaling the real beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance continues to be about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, in April 2000. Looking at the long range GFS, things aren't looking as cold as I had expected for early February. Not sure if the postulated solar effect is minimal or whether the El Nino effect is trumping any solar effect. I guess we'll see as the winter continues. posted: Jan 30 2010 at 8:13 am [/weather/jan10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.