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Winter Weather Update- Thurs 9 PM
This evening's NAM data just available. QPF values are now only 0.08 inches water or slightly more than 1 inch snow. Again, this sort of scenario often leads to amounts that are less.
So, I'm forecasting a dusting to 1.5 inches.
posted: Jan 07 2010 at 9:15 pm
[/weather/jan10] permanent link
Winter Weather Update- Thurs PM
This afternoon's models consistently crank out about 0.15 inches water, or 2 or so inches of snow for the cold front that will pass through in the early hours of Friday morning. So, while I had thought that this would be a fizzler and could result in little or no accumuation, I have to respect the model's consistency at this point. So I'm raising the snow totals to about 1-2 inches. Still hedging on the low side.
Again this scenario is often surprises, usually in the direction of lower than predicted snow totals. That said, it's difficult to ignore the model's consistency.
The snow, if we get it, will affect Friday's rush hour. I'll try to nail it down better this evening. Look for updates a little after 9 PM, based on the NAM model.
posted: Jan 07 2010 at 8:27 pm
[/weather/jan10] permanent link
Winter Weather Update- Thurs AM
A cold front will move through Thurs night. Weak low pressure is expected to develop over our area as the front moves through. About 0.1 inch water is expected to fall as snow which translates into about 1 inch or so of snow. Since this low will dynamically form as the front moves through, confidence in the exact amount and location of the most snow is low. These sort of scenarios often disappoint, with nothing at all accumulating. Occasionally, the enhancement and development of the low is greater than predicted, causing more. The most likely amount is about 1 inch, but it could range from zero to 2.
The snow, if we get it, will affect Friday's rush hour. I'll try to nail it down better this evening. Look for updates after 9 PM, based on the NAM model.
posted: Jan 07 2010 at 7:22 am
[/weather/jan10] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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