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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
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Wed, 30 Aug 2006
Late Night Update - Wed PM
Just a quick look at the models tonight...The GFS continues with heavy rain for Philadelphia and the shore, starting late morning on Friday. HOWEVER, the NAM-WRF and old NGM models have it totally dry here!! (It is known that the NAM-WRF is not very good with tropical systems.)
The GFS continues to be my preferred model in general, and the NOGAPS, my preferred model for tropical systems. (The new NOGAPS isn't fully available to me at this hour.)
Just thought I'd mention that the GFS is consistent at this time, but there is not complete consensus with the path of Ernesto's moisture among the major US models. More updates tomorrow.

posted: Aug 30 2006 at 11:12 pm

[/weather/aug06] permanent link

Ernesto and Weekend Outlook- Wed PM
Looking over this afternoon's models, many have the remnants of Ernesto moving up the coast, then lifting through central Pennsylvania. We'll be on the northwest quadrant of the storm, with signficant wind and rain, according to the NOGAPS and GFS models. The latest GFS has 3-4 inches of rain in about 24 hours with the heaviest rain from 2 PM on Friday through 2AM Saturday. Winds may be as high as 35-40 mph.
There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday and Monday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS is very pessimistic for the balance of the weekend, while the GFS is much drier, beginning Saturday afternoon. I'm going with the more optimistic GFS at this time.
Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the late morning...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Heavy rains and strong winds.
Sat 9/2: Heavy rains and wind taper off during the early afternoon. Flooding possible early. Some sun may break out in the afternoon. High 76. Shore: Rain ending mid-day. Some sun possible in the afternoon. Continued windy.
Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, with some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain).
Mon 9/4: Partly sunny. Chance of showers along the coast in the afternoon. High 84 (Forecast uncertain).

posted: Aug 30 2006 at 7:40 pm

[/weather/aug06] permanent link

Heavy Rain Outlook for Friday and Saturday
The models are showing much consistency regarding the moisture remnants of Ernesto, with a coastal track appearing to be very likely.
Ernesto, now over soutwestern Fl, will move northward, with its outflow moisture trapped in an upper wind flow into our area. The NOGAPS and GFS models continue to have tropical storm Ernesto develop into a extra-tropical low pressure that will move up the coast bringing heavy rains to our area at least Friday through Saturday. The latest trends continues with a somewhat inland track, with less development and less wind than previously shown, but it will still be stormy on Friday and Saturday.
There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday and Monday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS is very pessimistic for the balance of the weekend, while the GFS is much drier.
Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Heavy rains and strong winds.
Sat 9/2: Heavy rains and wind taper off later during the day. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Rain ending late in the day. Continued windy.
Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, perhaps some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain).
Mon 9/4: Mostly cloudy. Some sun possible. High 82

posted: Aug 30 2006 at 6:58 am

[/weather/aug06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 30 Aug 2006 Late Night Update - Wed PM Just a quick look at the models tonight...The GFS continues with heavy rain for Philadelphia and the shore, starting late morning on Friday. HOWEVER, the NAM-WRF and old NGM models have it totally dry here!! (It is known that the NAM-WRF is not very good with tropical systems.) The GFS continues to be my preferred model in general, and the NOGAPS, my preferred model for tropical systems. (The new NOGAPS isn't fully available to me at this hour.) Just thought I'd mention that the GFS is consistent at this time, but there is not complete consensus with the path of Ernesto's moisture among the major US models. More updates tomorrow. posted: Aug 30 2006 at 11:12 pm [/weather/aug06] permanent link Ernesto and Weekend Outlook- Wed PM Looking over this afternoon's models, many have the remnants of Ernesto moving up the coast, then lifting through central Pennsylvania. We'll be on the northwest quadrant of the storm, with signficant wind and rain, according to the NOGAPS and GFS models. The latest GFS has 3-4 inches of rain in about 24 hours with the heaviest rain from 2 PM on Friday through 2AM Saturday. Winds may be as high as 35-40 mph. There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday and Monday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS is very pessimistic for the balance of the weekend, while the GFS is much drier, beginning Saturday afternoon. I'm going with the more optimistic GFS at this time. Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the late morning...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Heavy rains and strong winds. Sat 9/2: Heavy rains and wind taper off during the early afternoon. Flooding possible early. Some sun may break out in the afternoon. High 76. Shore: Rain ending mid-day. Some sun possible in the afternoon. Continued windy. Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, with some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain). Mon 9/4: Partly sunny. Chance of showers along the coast in the afternoon. High 84 (Forecast uncertain). posted: Aug 30 2006 at 7:40 pm [/weather/aug06] permanent link Heavy Rain Outlook for Friday and Saturday The models are showing much consistency regarding the moisture remnants of Ernesto, with a coastal track appearing to be very likely. Ernesto, now over soutwestern Fl, will move northward, with its outflow moisture trapped in an upper wind flow into our area. The NOGAPS and GFS models continue to have tropical storm Ernesto develop into a extra-tropical low pressure that will move up the coast bringing heavy rains to our area at least Friday through Saturday. The latest trends continues with a somewhat inland track, with less development and less wind than previously shown, but it will still be stormy on Friday and Saturday. There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday and Monday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS is very pessimistic for the balance of the weekend, while the GFS is much drier. Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Heavy rains and strong winds. Sat 9/2: Heavy rains and wind taper off later during the day. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Rain ending late in the day. Continued windy. Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, perhaps some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain). Mon 9/4: Mostly cloudy. Some sun possible. High 82 posted: Aug 30 2006 at 6:58 am [/weather/aug06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.