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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Wed, 20 Feb 2008
Snow to Sleet on Friday- Wed PM [2] Update
11 PM Latest GFS has more precip- about 3 inches snow in the morning and significantly more sleet in the afternoon.
Previous Discussion:
Latest NAM model just available shows light snow developing just before daybreak on Friday, then about 1-2 inches of snow Friday morning. It appears that the snow will change to sleet in and around Philadelphia about 1 PM, with some additional accumulations of sleet. Likely to become all rain by evening, but ground temperatures may be slow to rise, so freezing conditions a possibility during the afternoon and evening.
The GFS model hasn't yet become available but this afternoon's run of the model had very similar precipitation values as the latest NAM model. The GFS model was running colder, with more sleet going through much of the afternoon. Not a good day to drive, but the precip that occurs during the daytime may not be too bad on roadways since the solar angle is getting fairly high and solar insolation has to be taken into account this time of year. If ground temperatures fail to rise (a strong possibility) freezing rain may be prolonged Friday evening and night, as the sun angle goes lower. Difficult driving conditions likely then.
It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
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posted: Feb 20 2008 at 11:02 pm

[/weather/feb08] permanent link

Snow to Sleet on Friday- Wed PM Update
Latest NAM model just available shows light snow developing just before daybreak on Friday, then about 1-2 inches of snow Friday morning. It appears that the snow will change to sleet in and around Philadelphia about 1 PM, with some additional accumulations of sleet. Likely to become all rain by evening, but ground temperatures may be slow to rise, so freezing conditions a possibility during the afternoon and evening.
The GFS model hasn't yet become available but this afternoon's run of the model had very similar precipitation values as the latest NAM model. The GFS model was running colder, with more sleet going through much of the afternoon. Not a good day to drive, but the precip that occurs during the daytime may not be too bad on roadways since the solar angle is getting fairly high and solar insolation has to be taken into account this time of year. If ground temperatures fail to rise (a strong possibility) freezing rain may be prolonged Friday evening and night, as the sun angle goes lower. Difficult driving conditions likely then.
It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
Like these forecasts? Improve my Yahoo ratings by clicking on an ad of interest at the top of the page! If you receive this report via RSS feed, please visit the site http://theweatherguy.net and click. Thanks!

posted: Feb 20 2008 at 10:24 pm

[/weather/feb08] permanent link

Today, a coating...Friday a mess- Wed AM Update
The clipper that is expected to move through this afternoon is expected to have a minimal amount of precipitation associated with it. The GFS and NAM are forecasting only 0.03-0.05 inches water at this time, which translates into flurries or a coating at most. Further north, just flurries, further south, more of a coating.
Deep low pressure will affect us Friday into Friday night.; Another impulse will affect us on Saturday.
The models are showing a colder trend, with colder temps, more snow than ice, but less total precipitation. However, total amounts of water falling (QPF) is almost 0.50 inches water. If all snow, this is up to six inches. This storm won't be simple, since the rain-snow line will move north of PHL during the day and then move back over the city.
A difficult commute Friday morning and even more so Friday evening, as snow will start just before daybreak and be transitioning back in the late afternoon. For Philadelphia, this appears to be a snow -->sleet-->snow event, while areas north and west will see more snow, with the changeback to snow occuring late afternoon into the evening.
Depending upon the amount of sleet (or even some freezing rain), exact accumulations will be difficult to predict. Best guess is about 3-4 inches of snow mixed with sleet by late Friday evening.
Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
Like these forecasts? Improve my Yahoo ratings by clicking on an ad of interest at the top of the page! If you receive this report via RSS feed, please visit the site http://theweatherguy.net and click. Thanks!

posted: Feb 20 2008 at 7:27 am

[/weather/feb08] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 20 Feb 2008 Snow to Sleet on Friday- Wed PM [2] Update 11 PM Latest GFS has more precip- about 3 inches snow in the morning and significantly more sleet in the afternoon. Previous Discussion: Latest NAM model just available shows light snow developing just before daybreak on Friday, then about 1-2 inches of snow Friday morning. It appears that the snow will change to sleet in and around Philadelphia about 1 PM, with some additional accumulations of sleet. Likely to become all rain by evening, but ground temperatures may be slow to rise, so freezing conditions a possibility during the afternoon and evening. The GFS model hasn't yet become available but this afternoon's run of the model had very similar precipitation values as the latest NAM model. The GFS model was running colder, with more sleet going through much of the afternoon. Not a good day to drive, but the precip that occurs during the daytime may not be too bad on roadways since the solar angle is getting fairly high and solar insolation has to be taken into account this time of year. If ground temperatures fail to rise (a strong possibility) freezing rain may be prolonged Friday evening and night, as the sun angle goes lower. Difficult driving conditions likely then. It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned. Like these forecasts? Improve my Yahoo ratings by clicking on an ad of interest at the top of the page! If you receive this report via RSS feed, please visit the site http://theweatherguy.net and click. Thanks! posted: Feb 20 2008 at 11:02 pm [/weather/feb08] permanent link Snow to Sleet on Friday- Wed PM Update Latest NAM model just available shows light snow developing just before daybreak on Friday, then about 1-2 inches of snow Friday morning. It appears that the snow will change to sleet in and around Philadelphia about 1 PM, with some additional accumulations of sleet. Likely to become all rain by evening, but ground temperatures may be slow to rise, so freezing conditions a possibility during the afternoon and evening. The GFS model hasn't yet become available but this afternoon's run of the model had very similar precipitation values as the latest NAM model. The GFS model was running colder, with more sleet going through much of the afternoon. Not a good day to drive, but the precip that occurs during the daytime may not be too bad on roadways since the solar angle is getting fairly high and solar insolation has to be taken into account this time of year. If ground temperatures fail to rise (a strong possibility) freezing rain may be prolonged Friday evening and night, as the sun angle goes lower. Difficult driving conditions likely then. It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned. Like these forecasts? Improve my Yahoo ratings by clicking on an ad of interest at the top of the page! If you receive this report via RSS feed, please visit the site http://theweatherguy.net and click. Thanks! posted: Feb 20 2008 at 10:24 pm [/weather/feb08] permanent link Today, a coating...Friday a mess- Wed AM Update The clipper that is expected to move through this afternoon is expected to have a minimal amount of precipitation associated with it. The GFS and NAM are forecasting only 0.03-0.05 inches water at this time, which translates into flurries or a coating at most. Further north, just flurries, further south, more of a coating. Deep low pressure will affect us Friday into Friday night.; Another impulse will affect us on Saturday. The models are showing a colder trend, with colder temps, more snow than ice, but less total precipitation. However, total amounts of water falling (QPF) is almost 0.50 inches water. If all snow, this is up to six inches. This storm won't be simple, since the rain-snow line will move north of PHL during the day and then move back over the city. A difficult commute Friday morning and even more so Friday evening, as snow will start just before daybreak and be transitioning back in the late afternoon. For Philadelphia, this appears to be a snow -->sleet-->snow event, while areas north and west will see more snow, with the changeback to snow occuring late afternoon into the evening. Depending upon the amount of sleet (or even some freezing rain), exact accumulations will be difficult to predict. Best guess is about 3-4 inches of snow mixed with sleet by late Friday evening. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned. Like these forecasts? Improve my Yahoo ratings by clicking on an ad of interest at the top of the page! If you receive this report via RSS feed, please visit the site http://theweatherguy.net and click. Thanks! posted: Feb 20 2008 at 7:27 am [/weather/feb08] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.