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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
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Tue, 11 Dec 2007
Large Nor'Easter Forecast for this Weekend- Tues PM
Before we get to Sunday, there may be sleet on Thursday, as temperatures will be moving downward and there may be cold air at the surface.
The models continue with a major winter storm to move into our area late Saturday through Sunday. The storm undergoes explosive cyclogenesis near us as it slowly moves away.
There is a range of solutions forecast by the models. The NOGAPS has us on the cold side of the low, but the low is so far offshore, that we get little in the way of snow.
The GFS and the DGEX (a combination of the ETA and GFS models) shows the low pressure system exploding right over us, but with much warm air trapped, it will be start as snow, then change to sleet then heavy rain and then back to snow Sunday night before ending, with accumulations not impressive.
The statistical ensemble, a set of 16-20 runs of the GFS model with known statistical perturbations introduced, shows only a 60-70% chance of snow for Philadelphia. This sounds high, but below 80%, we generally get a mix of sleet and rain. In the event that the storm develops half-way between the NOGAPS and the GFS, we'd have a major snowstorm here on Sunday.
Right now, I'd favor the GFS/DGEX model. Either way, it's gonna be interesting for barometer fans out there.

posted: Dec 11 2007 at 8:59 pm

[/weather/dec07] permanent link

Pattern Continues- Big Storm on Sunday??- Tues Update
The same pattern of clouds and over-running moisture continues through Thursday, with heavier rain expected on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and early Saturday.
The GFS model has jumped onto a solution first posed by the NOGAPS model a few days ago, with a major storm affecting us late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday's storm may be a rain storm changing to snow storm. Details too early to call as this time. The NOGAPS now has the major development north and east of us, while the GFS has a bombogenesis occuring right over us.

posted: Dec 11 2007 at 7:14 am

[/weather/dec07] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Tue, 11 Dec 2007 Large Nor'Easter Forecast for this Weekend- Tues PM Before we get to Sunday, there may be sleet on Thursday, as temperatures will be moving downward and there may be cold air at the surface. The models continue with a major winter storm to move into our area late Saturday through Sunday. The storm undergoes explosive cyclogenesis near us as it slowly moves away. There is a range of solutions forecast by the models. The NOGAPS has us on the cold side of the low, but the low is so far offshore, that we get little in the way of snow. The GFS and the DGEX (a combination of the ETA and GFS models) shows the low pressure system exploding right over us, but with much warm air trapped, it will be start as snow, then change to sleet then heavy rain and then back to snow Sunday night before ending, with accumulations not impressive. The statistical ensemble, a set of 16-20 runs of the GFS model with known statistical perturbations introduced, shows only a 60-70% chance of snow for Philadelphia. This sounds high, but below 80%, we generally get a mix of sleet and rain. In the event that the storm develops half-way between the NOGAPS and the GFS, we'd have a major snowstorm here on Sunday. Right now, I'd favor the GFS/DGEX model. Either way, it's gonna be interesting for barometer fans out there. posted: Dec 11 2007 at 8:59 pm [/weather/dec07] permanent link Pattern Continues- Big Storm on Sunday??- Tues Update The same pattern of clouds and over-running moisture continues through Thursday, with heavier rain expected on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and early Saturday. The GFS model has jumped onto a solution first posed by the NOGAPS model a few days ago, with a major storm affecting us late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday's storm may be a rain storm changing to snow storm. Details too early to call as this time. The NOGAPS now has the major development north and east of us, while the GFS has a bombogenesis occuring right over us. posted: Dec 11 2007 at 7:14 am [/weather/dec07] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.