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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 07 Dec 2007
Uncertain Weekend Forecast Continued- Fri PM [2]
Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast continue to be difficult to discern. An over-running pattern of warm air over cold surface air is developing.
There is already evidence that the models aren't capturing the scenario very accurately. The NAM is out to lunch, with a very dry forecast for today, Friday. The GFS is underestimating the precipitation and is over-estimating the temperatures aloft. As a result, we're getting more snow this afternoon than either model showed.
When the models get the near time period wrong, you can't really be confident about the later periods. Anyhow, the GFS has more light precip for Saturday morning, but with the sun breaking out by the afternoon.
The 1 PM run of the GFS has precipitation waiting until the afternoon on Sunday.
Here's the best guess for the weekend. Confidence is low and details may change.:
Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon. High 46.
Sun 12/9: Becoming cloudy by noon, then light rain later in the afternoon and night.

posted: Dec 07 2007 at 5:16 pm

[/weather/dec07] permanent link

Uncertain Weekend Forecast Continued- Fri PM
Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast continue to be difficult to discern. An over-running pattern of warm air over cold surface air is developing.
There is already evidence that the models aren't capturing the scenario very accurately. The NAM is out to lunch, with a very dry forecast for today, Friday. The GFS is underestimating the precipitation and is over-estimating the temperatures aloft. As a result, we're getting more snow this afternoon than either model showed.
When the models get the near time period wrong, you can't really be confident about the later periods. Anyhow, the GFS has more light precip for Saturday morning, but with the sun breaking out by the afternoon.
If skies really clear Saturday afternoon and early evening, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop enough that the precip on Sunday will start as ice pellets or freezing rain.
Here's the best guess for the weekend. Confidence is low and details may change.:
Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon. High 46.
Sun 12/9: Mostly cloudy with sleet or freezing rain in the early morning, then a chance of showers or drizzle later in the day. Temperatures in the 30s rise in the evening to the 40s.

posted: Dec 07 2007 at 2:16 pm

[/weather/dec07] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 07 Dec 2007 Uncertain Weekend Forecast Continued- Fri PM [2] Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast continue to be difficult to discern. An over-running pattern of warm air over cold surface air is developing. There is already evidence that the models aren't capturing the scenario very accurately. The NAM is out to lunch, with a very dry forecast for today, Friday. The GFS is underestimating the precipitation and is over-estimating the temperatures aloft. As a result, we're getting more snow this afternoon than either model showed. When the models get the near time period wrong, you can't really be confident about the later periods. Anyhow, the GFS has more light precip for Saturday morning, but with the sun breaking out by the afternoon. The 1 PM run of the GFS has precipitation waiting until the afternoon on Sunday. Here's the best guess for the weekend. Confidence is low and details may change.: Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon. High 46. Sun 12/9: Becoming cloudy by noon, then light rain later in the afternoon and night. posted: Dec 07 2007 at 5:16 pm [/weather/dec07] permanent link Uncertain Weekend Forecast Continued- Fri PM Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast continue to be difficult to discern. An over-running pattern of warm air over cold surface air is developing. There is already evidence that the models aren't capturing the scenario very accurately. The NAM is out to lunch, with a very dry forecast for today, Friday. The GFS is underestimating the precipitation and is over-estimating the temperatures aloft. As a result, we're getting more snow this afternoon than either model showed. When the models get the near time period wrong, you can't really be confident about the later periods. Anyhow, the GFS has more light precip for Saturday morning, but with the sun breaking out by the afternoon. If skies really clear Saturday afternoon and early evening, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop enough that the precip on Sunday will start as ice pellets or freezing rain. Here's the best guess for the weekend. Confidence is low and details may change.: Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon. High 46. Sun 12/9: Mostly cloudy with sleet or freezing rain in the early morning, then a chance of showers or drizzle later in the day. Temperatures in the 30s rise in the evening to the 40s. posted: Dec 07 2007 at 2:16 pm [/weather/dec07] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.