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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Thu, 20 Apr 2006
Clarifying the Weekend Forecast- Changes
This morning's GFS model continues to have the closed upper air low parked over the Great Lakes, however the 'bullseye' of heavy rain has shifted considerably into western PA. As mentioned in this morning's forecast, this often happens with closed lows -- The distance outside the low where the most lift and moisture convergence occurs is often hard to pinpoint. Showers are still expected but much less, according to the GFS. The WRF model (experimental Weather Research Forecast model) has things drying out during the day, with almost all of the activity in western PA. (As mentioned, I'm evaluating the WRF model for my forecasts. The WRF is good for only 60 hours in advance.)
(With past closed lows, the bullseye of rain that actually develops sometimes is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.)
Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area.
I'll update again later.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with showers early, then a break in the action late morning as things dry out a bit. We may even have some sun. High in the 60s.
Sun 4/23: Cloudy with lingering rain, then partial clearing skies late morning. Some sun. High near 70.

posted: Apr 20 2006 at 1:58 pm

[/weather/apr06] permanent link

Rainy Saturday; Questionmark for Sunday.
Unlike last weekend, where the models were inconsistent, this week, the models have been very consistent predicting rain for this coming Saturday. Upper air low pressure, stuck over the Great Lakes will rotate areas of spin (vorticity) up from the southwest. The GFS has been consistent with the bullseye of rain being right over our area.
(With past closed lows, the bullseye of rain that actually develops sometimes is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.)
Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain likely much of the day. Cool. High in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Clouds with some sun possible by mid day. Much of the day will be dry. High near 70. Some uncertainty with this forecast.

posted: Apr 20 2006 at 6:13 am

[/weather/apr06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Thu, 20 Apr 2006 Clarifying the Weekend Forecast- Changes This morning's GFS model continues to have the closed upper air low parked over the Great Lakes, however the 'bullseye' of heavy rain has shifted considerably into western PA. As mentioned in this morning's forecast, this often happens with closed lows -- The distance outside the low where the most lift and moisture convergence occurs is often hard to pinpoint. Showers are still expected but much less, according to the GFS. The WRF model (experimental Weather Research Forecast model) has things drying out during the day, with almost all of the activity in western PA. (As mentioned, I'm evaluating the WRF model for my forecasts. The WRF is good for only 60 hours in advance.) (With past closed lows, the bullseye of rain that actually develops sometimes is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.) Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area. I'll update again later. Sat 4/22: Cloudy with showers early, then a break in the action late morning as things dry out a bit. We may even have some sun. High in the 60s. Sun 4/23: Cloudy with lingering rain, then partial clearing skies late morning. Some sun. High near 70. posted: Apr 20 2006 at 1:58 pm [/weather/apr06] permanent link Rainy Saturday; Questionmark for Sunday. Unlike last weekend, where the models were inconsistent, this week, the models have been very consistent predicting rain for this coming Saturday. Upper air low pressure, stuck over the Great Lakes will rotate areas of spin (vorticity) up from the southwest. The GFS has been consistent with the bullseye of rain being right over our area. (With past closed lows, the bullseye of rain that actually develops sometimes is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.) Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area. Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain likely much of the day. Cool. High in the 50s. Sun 4/23: Clouds with some sun possible by mid day. Much of the day will be dry. High near 70. Some uncertainty with this forecast. posted: Apr 20 2006 at 6:13 am [/weather/apr06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.