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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 21 Apr 2006
Weekend Weather Update- Fri Eve
No significant change with this afternoon's models. Due to the change to daylight savings time, only the new NAM data is available at this hour of the night. The NAM cranks out measureable precipitation every 6 hour period through Saturday evening. We'll see if there's any breaks in the precip tomorrow.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain, heavy in the morning and heavy again Saturday evening. Chilly with highs in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny. Clouds again late afternoon with showers possible again. High 74.

posted: Apr 21 2006 at 9:50 pm

[/weather/apr06] permanent link

Weekend Weather Update- Fri Afternoon
Enough speculation of a more optimistic forecast....the latest GFS and WRF models are out from this morning and HEAVY rain, without any letup, is forecast for Saturday. Early model runs hinted at a break in the action, but the latest model runs don't support that. (Was trying to be optimistic here.)
The GFS cranks out over 2 inches of rain, starting well before daybreak on Saturday and continuing heavy through the the first half of Saturday night. It tapers off around daybreak on Sunday. Some clearing Sunday and perhaps some sun mid-day before clouds come back in the afternoon with showers again Sunday night.
I'll update later tonight.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with heavy rain for much of the day. Chilly with highs in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny. Clouds again late afternoon. High 74.

posted: Apr 21 2006 at 11:55 am

[/weather/apr06] permanent link

Fine-tuning the Saturday Forecast
Waves (areas of vorticity) revolving around an upper low in the Great Lakes will affect our weather. The WRF and GFS models have come back in line with the bullseye of precip rotating over our area during the night time hours. (With past closed lows, sometimes the bullseye of rain that develops is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.)
The big issue will be timing, since both models suggest that the major rains will be occuring Friday night and Saturday night. During the daytime period of Saturday, I expect the rain to significantly taper off; brightening skies and even some sun may peek out between the major impulses passing through during the night time hours.
Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area.
I'll update later.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain early, tapering off towards afternoon. Brightening skies and even some sun may peek out early afternoon. Rain returns later in the afternoon and night. Cool in the morning, becoming very mild in the afternoon. 50s in the morning, then possibly moving into the 70s with the warm sector moving over us in the afternoon.
Sun 4/23: Remaining clouds and rain early, then clearing conditions. High near 70.

posted: Apr 21 2006 at 6:44 am

[/weather/apr06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 21 Apr 2006 Weekend Weather Update- Fri Eve No significant change with this afternoon's models. Due to the change to daylight savings time, only the new NAM data is available at this hour of the night. The NAM cranks out measureable precipitation every 6 hour period through Saturday evening. We'll see if there's any breaks in the precip tomorrow. Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain, heavy in the morning and heavy again Saturday evening. Chilly with highs in the 50s. Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny. Clouds again late afternoon with showers possible again. High 74. posted: Apr 21 2006 at 9:50 pm [/weather/apr06] permanent link Weekend Weather Update- Fri Afternoon Enough speculation of a more optimistic forecast....the latest GFS and WRF models are out from this morning and HEAVY rain, without any letup, is forecast for Saturday. Early model runs hinted at a break in the action, but the latest model runs don't support that. (Was trying to be optimistic here.) The GFS cranks out over 2 inches of rain, starting well before daybreak on Saturday and continuing heavy through the the first half of Saturday night. It tapers off around daybreak on Sunday. Some clearing Sunday and perhaps some sun mid-day before clouds come back in the afternoon with showers again Sunday night. I'll update later tonight. Sat 4/22: Cloudy with heavy rain for much of the day. Chilly with highs in the 50s. Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny. Clouds again late afternoon. High 74. posted: Apr 21 2006 at 11:55 am [/weather/apr06] permanent link Fine-tuning the Saturday Forecast Waves (areas of vorticity) revolving around an upper low in the Great Lakes will affect our weather. The WRF and GFS models have come back in line with the bullseye of precip rotating over our area during the night time hours. (With past closed lows, sometimes the bullseye of rain that develops is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.) The big issue will be timing, since both models suggest that the major rains will be occuring Friday night and Saturday night. During the daytime period of Saturday, I expect the rain to significantly taper off; brightening skies and even some sun may peek out between the major impulses passing through during the night time hours. Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area. I'll update later. Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain early, tapering off towards afternoon. Brightening skies and even some sun may peek out early afternoon. Rain returns later in the afternoon and night. Cool in the morning, becoming very mild in the afternoon. 50s in the morning, then possibly moving into the 70s with the warm sector moving over us in the afternoon. Sun 4/23: Remaining clouds and rain early, then clearing conditions. High near 70. posted: Apr 21 2006 at 6:44 am [/weather/apr06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.