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Thoughts and Comments about Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life
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Fri, 04 Jul 2008
On Vacation First Week in July
Don't want to disappoint my regular visitors, but I'm on vacation this first week in July- weather forecasts to resume the week of July 6th. Have a Happy and safe Fourth of July!
posted: Jul 04 2008 at 9:23 pm
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Fri, 27 Jun 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri Update
If you've been following the weather, you've noticed that the prediction of showers and thunderstorms for this past week hasn't been too accurate. The models just haven't been capturing the setup very well.
Considering the recent lack of accuracy, the current weekend is forecast to be hot and humid. Temperatures on Saturday expected to be in the low 90s with dewpoints around 70, which should make things fairly sultry. (Hey it's summer and it gets hot in the summer!)
Saturday should have a more sun than clouds; Sunday will have more clouds, but the chances of precipitation are only in the 50% range.
Sat 6/28: A mix of sun and clouds, hot and humid. A chance of a thunderstorm, but most areas won't see one. High 92.
Sun 6/29: More clouds than sun, showers possible during the afternoon, although not a sure thing. High 88.
posted: Jun 27 2008 at 6:27 am
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Thu, 26 Jun 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs Update
If you've been following the weather, you've noticed that the prediction of showers and thunderstorms for this past week hasn't been too accurate. The models just haven't been capturing the setup very well.
Considering the recent lack of accuracy, the current weekend is forecast to be hot and humid. Temperatures on Saturday expected to be in the low 90s with dewpoints around 70, which should make things fairly sultry. (Hey it's summer and it gets hot in the summer!)
Saturday should have a more sun than clouds; Sunday is forecast to have a chance of showers and more clouds than sun as a front approaches. We'll see! :-)
Sat 6/28: A mix of sun and clouds, hot and humid. A chance of a thunderstorm, but most areas dry. High 92.
Sun 6/29: More clouds than sun, showers likely during the day. Timing the showers to be updated later. High 88.
posted: Jun 26 2008 at 5:14 pm
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Sun, 22 Jun 2008Will it rain today?- Sun AM
A moist unstable air mass with an approaching upper cyclonic flow has moved into our area last night, as expected. That said, pinning down the exact timing of the showers is a bit elusive, since the models (the GFS in particular) has already over-estimated the scattered showers for last night and this morning.
The high resolution WRF model was somewhat more accurate last night, and it has a mix of sun and clouds here for most of the day, with scattered showers to our far west during the late morning and showers/thunderstorms developing in the immediate Philadelphia area somewhere between 2 and 5 PM. Exact placement and timing is going to be difficult, but the areal coverage of the showers, as predicted by the models, has decreased in the most recent model runs for today.
Sun 6/22: A mix of sun and clouds, warm and humid. Scattered thunderstorms develop, mostly after 2 PM in the immediate Philadelphia area. High 83
posted: Jun 22 2008 at 7:39 am
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Fri, 20 Jun 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Sun 6/22: Mostly cloudy (although breaks of sun possible) with a good chance of showers, especially in the morning and mid-day hours. High 79.
While summer begins this weekend, the weather map is looking more like March, as a slowly developing upper trough will produce a surface front and cause instability. Low pressure developing along coastline will bring showers to our area on Sunday.
Exact timing of the showers on Sunday is uncertain.
Sat 6/21: Partly sunny warm and somewhat humid. High 86.
posted: Jun 20 2008 at 10:17 pm
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Wed, 18 Jun 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Sun 6/22: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers. High 83.
Cold air aloft is causing significant instability with the June sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms broke out today and likely again on Thursday.
Things dry out for Saturday and temps warm into the 80s. For Sunday, an approaching weak front will allow low pressure to develop along the coastline. Unsettled weather, showers and humidity will likely be with us on Sunday.
Sat 6/21: Partly sunny warm and somewhat humid. High 87.
posted: Jun 18 2008 at 9:24 pm
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Mon, 16 Jun 2008Monday Thunderstorms?
Listening to KYW, there's prediction of heavy thunderstorms for this afternoon and tonight. A good general forecast, but the MOS forecast has a POP of only 50% and the WRF high resolution model has the thunderstorms shearing off to our north missing us.
I guess we'll see!
posted: Jun 16 2008 at 7:32 am
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Sat, 14 Jun 2008Weekend Weather Forecast UPDATE- Sat PM
The cold front is moving through western PA this afternoon and showers are breaking out in the Susquehanna Valley and east at 4:30 PM. The NAM and the GFS are now in better agreement with showers and thunderstorms moving in by 6-8 PM this evening and continuing through the night. Both models have the precipitation ending on or before 8 AM Sunday. (Previously the NAM had heavy showers lingering later in the morning, but the latest run cuts it off before 8AM. The GFS continues with a slow clearing during the morning, with a chance of a shower.
Clearing during the morning on Sunday as high pressure builds in.
Sun 6/15: The bulk of the rain ends before 8 AM, although gradual clearing and a lingering light scatted shower a possibility until late morning. The sun should peek through by 9-10 AM with increasing sun through the day. Becoming less humid. High 87.
posted: Jun 14 2008 at 4:43 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast-CHANGE- Sat AM
Sun 6/15: Showers ending by about 9 AM, then skies clearing with sun by afternoon. High 89.
A weak cold front is forecast to pass through our area Saturday early evening, but the latest NAM model has the front slowing down with the heaviest showers lingering into Sunday morning. Moisture aloft moving in before the front will bring increased clouds to our area during the afternoon Saturday.
Things clear out later on Sunday
Sat 6/14: Mostly sunny in the morning, becoming very warm and humid. Clouds move in during the afternoon. The NAM hints at a light spit in the afternoon, but the heavier showers will wait until later tonight. High 88.
posted: Jun 14 2008 at 9:25 am
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Fri, 13 Jun 2008Weekend Weather Forecast-Corrected- Fri PM
Sun 6/15: Partly sunny, warm and less humid. High 89.
A weak cold front is forecast to pass through our area Saturday early evening. The latest NAM model is somewhat wetter than the GFS model- it has some clouds and showers moving into the western suburbs and Philadelphia during the late afternoon or early evening. That said the POPs are only about 60%.
Things clear out for Sunday.
I'll try to pin down the timing of the showers tonight.
Sat 6/14: Mostly sunny, very warm and humid. Clouds move in late afternoon with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High 89.
posted: Jun 13 2008 at 3:03 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
Sun 6/15: Partly sunny, warm and less humid. High 89.
A weak cold front is forecast to pass through our area on Saturday afternoon and early evening. The latest NAM model is somewhat wetter than the GFS model- it has some clouds and showers moving into the western suburbs and Philadelphia by noon on Saturday with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon (especially late afternoon). That said the POPs are only about 60%.
Things clear out for Sunday.
I'll try to pin down the timing of the showers tonight.
Sat 6/14: Sunny in the morning, considerable clouds in the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible, especially after 3 PM. Very warm and humid. High 89.
posted: Jun 13 2008 at 11:07 am
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Wed, 11 Jun 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Sun 6/15: Mostly sunny, warm. High 86.
Summer is here and temps will be in the upper 80s over the weekend. A weak cold front will pass through Saturday night, accompanied by showers.
Sat 6/14: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds late afternoon. High 88.
posted: Jun 11 2008 at 7:38 pm
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Sun, 08 Jun 2008Hot Philly Weather Weekend! - Sun AM update
Yesterday's high was in the mid 90s. Today's tempertures have taken off with temps already in the mid 80s. High temperatures today are likely between 96-98. Dewpoints upper 60s to near 70.
Sun 6/8: Mostly sunny, hazy hot and humid. High 96-98.
posted: Jun 08 2008 at 9:28 am
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Fri, 06 Jun 2008Hot Philly Weather Weekend! - Fri AM update
Sun 6/8: Mostly sunny, hazy hot and humid. High 96.
Our spring has been cool and wet, but it's June and summer is arriving this weekend! A summertime pattern with a Bermuda high pressure system will bring a southwesterly flow with humidity and hot weather.
Temperatures are being forecast by the MOS Guidance (Model Output Statistics) to be near 100 (GFS MOS) and closer to 95 (Eta MOS)
Last summer, the GFS MOS temperature forecasts were always forecast to be higher than actually occurred. So, I'm going to lean to the NAM high temps. The NAM has it much more humid, with dewpoints in the 70s. The GFS dewpoints are in the high 60s. Either way, it's going to be hot and humid!
Sat 6/7: Mostly sunny, hazy hot and humid. High 94.
posted: Jun 06 2008 at 11:37 am
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Thu, 05 Jun 2008Summer Arrives this Weekend! - Thurs PM update
Sun 6/8: Mostly sunny hot and humid. High 97.
Our spring has been cool and wet, but it's June and summer is arriving this weekend! A summertime pattern with a Bermuda high pressure system will bring a southwesterly flow with humidity and hot weather. Tempertures are being forecast by the Model Output Statistics to be in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints will be in the uncomfortable 70s! (Last summer, the MOS temperature forecasts, especially the GFS MOS, were too high. I'm using the MOS data for the forecast temps, but we'll see if it really gets as hot as the models say.)
Sat 6/7: Mostly sunny hot and humid. High 97.
posted: Jun 05 2008 at 5:40 pm
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Wed, 04 Jun 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM update
Sun 6/8: Mostly sunny warm and humid. Slight chance of a late afternoon thundershower. High 90
A summertime pattern with a Bermuda high will bring humidity and warm to hot weather for the weekend. A slight chance of thundershowers late each afternoon, more likely north of Philadelphia.
Sat 6/7: Mostly sunny very warm and humid. High 90
posted: Jun 04 2008 at 8:05 am
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Sat, 31 May 2008Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM Update
Sun 6/1: A mix of sun and some clouds. Less humid. High 84.
Little change in the forecast, as the frontal system is still expected to reach Philadelphia by about 2 PM, with showers and thunderstorms immediately preceeding and accompanying the frontal passage. (For the Jersey Shore and Delaware, the high resolution NAM has some very severe weather for later in the afternoon.) Drier weather moves in for Sunday.
Sat 5/31: Increasing clouds early morning, becoming mostly cloudy (some breaks in the overcast possible during the day) with showers and thunderstorms likely starting as early as 1 PM and continuing for several hours. (earlier further west of Philly.) Warm and humid and windy. High 81.
posted: May 31 2008 at 8:52 am
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Fri, 30 May 2008Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM Update
Sun 6/1: A mix of sun and clouds. Less humid. High 79.
Low pressure with a frontal system is expected to rotate through our area on Saturday. The GFS has us fairly wet on Saturday (about 0.50 inches rain) and things clearing on Sunday. The NAM is similar with showers early afternoon, then some sun, then some more showers early evening.
Sat 5/31: Increasing clouds early morning, becoming mostly cloudy (some breaks in the overcast possible during the day) with showers and thunderstorms likely about 1-4 PM Warm and humid and windy. High 81.
posted: May 30 2008 at 9:02 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM Update
Sun 6/1: A mix of sun and clouds. Less humid. High 79.
Low pressure with a frontal system is expected to rotate through our area on Saturday. The GFS has us fairly wet on Saturday (about 0.50 inches rain) and things partially clearing
Sat 5/31: Increasing clouds early morning, becoming mostly cloudy (some breaks in the overcast possible during the day) with showers and thunderstorms likely about 2-4 PM Warm and humid and windy. High 82.
posted: May 30 2008 at 8:26 am
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Thu, 29 May 2008Weekend Weather Forecast -Thurs Afternoon Update
Sun 6/1: A mix of sun and clouds. Less humid. High 81.
Low pressure is expected to rotate through our area on Saturday. The GFS has us fairly fwet on Saturday (about 0.50 inches rain) and things partially clearing
Sat 5/31: Increasing clouds early morning, becoming mostly cloudy (some breaks in the overcast possible during the day) with rain showers by late morning or early afternoon. Warm and humid. High 82.
posted: May 29 2008 at 6:30 pm
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Wed, 28 May 2008Weekend Outlook - Wed PM Update
Sun 6/1: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. High 70
Low pressure is expected to rotate through our area on Saturday. The GFS has us fairly fwet on Saturday, with things clearing out a bit by Sunday. There has been some uncertainty in the timing of this wet weather. I'll update again tomorrow.
Sat 5/31: Cloudy with showers, especially during the morning. High 72. (Tentative forecast)
posted: May 28 2008 at 10:00 pm
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Fri, 23 May 2008Week and Memorial Weekend Forecast- Fri PM Update
Sun 5/25: Sunny and pleasant. Warmer. High 77.
The upper low pattern moves offshore and high pressure builds in. Nicer weather returns in time for the next three days. Sunny skies and temps in the 70s increasing to near 80 from Saturday through Monday.
The long range pattern for the next week still suggests somewhat cool weather.
Sat 5/24: Sunny and pleasant. High 73.
posted: May 23 2008 at 11:31 pm
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Thu, 22 May 2008Week and Memorial Weekend Outlook- Thurs Update
Sun 5/25: Sunny and pleasant. Warmer. High 77.
Nicer weather returns in time for the Memorial Day weekend. Sunny skies and temps in the 70s increasing to near 80 from Saturday through Monday.
Sat 5/24: Sunny and pleasant. High 72.
posted: May 22 2008 at 8:50 pm
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Wed, 21 May 2008Week and Memorial Weekend Outlook- Wednesday Update
The upper low is expected to shift eastward as we enter Memorial Day weekend, but a northwest flow will continue to bring cooler temps. Surface high pressure will bring nice weather but still somewhat cool breezy conditions for the weekend.
So the overall outlook for Memorial Day weekend is mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s!
More details tomorrow.
posted: May 21 2008 at 6:42 am
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Sun, 18 May 2008Week and Memorial Weekend Outlook- Sun PM Update
The current weather pattern has put summer on hold as the closed upper low with a cyclonic flow over us will continue to bring cooler than average temps with occasional areas of vorticity causing lift and showers. This pattern will continue through Wednesday.
The upper low is expected to shift eastward as we enter Memorial Day weekend, but the cyclonic flow will continue to bring cooler temps. That will place us on the drier side of the upper low, and surface high pressure will likely bring nice conditions but still cool breezy weather for next weekend.
So the overall outlook for Memorial Day weekend is partly to mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures.
posted: May 18 2008 at 7:58 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM Update
An upper cyclonic flow will rotate an area of vorticity (upper air disturbances) through our region early Sunday afternoon. Sun will give way to clouds and light showers.
Sun 5/18: Some sun early, then mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers starting early afternoon. High 69.
posted: May 18 2008 at 8:01 am
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Sat, 17 May 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM Update
Sun 5/18: Some sun very early, then mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain starting 2 PM. High 69.
An upper cyclonic flow will rotate areas of vorticity (upper air disturbances) through our region late Saturday and again on Sunday afternoon.
Sat 5/17: Sunny in the morning and early afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy later in the afternoon Chance of a brief light shower late in the afternoon or early evening. High 71
posted: May 17 2008 at 11:12 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update
Sun 5/18: Some sun early, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 69.
An upper cyclonic flow will rotate areas of vorticity (upper air disturbances) through our region late Saturday and again on Sunday afternoon.
Sat 5/17: Sunny in the morning and early afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy later in the afternoon Chance of a brief light shower late in the afternoon or early evening. High 71
posted: May 17 2008 at 8:33 am
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Fri, 16 May 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM Update
Sun 5/18: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a brief shower early afternoon. High 70
An upper cold, cyclonic flow around a deep upper low in Canada establishes itself again this weekend-- the upper air pattern is more of a March pattern than May. Windy, cool with a mix of clouds and sun. The exact three dimensional moisture structure of this pattern is difficult for the models to capture, so predicting the exact amount of clouds, sun and timing of any light showers will be difficult for the weekend. Look for changes in the forecast.
Sat 5/17: Mostly sunny in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Chance of a shower late in the afternoon. High 70
posted: May 16 2008 at 6:48 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs Afternoon Update
Sun 5/18: A mix of clouds and sun in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. Breezy and cool. Chance of a shower, especially late in the afternoon. High 66.
An upper cold, cyclonic flow around a deep upper low in Canada establishes itself again this weekend-- the upper air pattern is more of a March pattern than May. Windy, cool with a mix of clouds and sun. The exact three dimensional moisture structure of this pattern is difficult for the models to capture, so predicting the exact amount of clouds, sun and timing of any light showers will be difficult for the weekend.
Sat 5/17: A mix of clouds and sun- more sunshine than clouds, especially in the morning. Breezy and cool. Chance of a shower late in the afternoon. High 64
posted: May 16 2008 at 8:20 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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