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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Fri, 03 Sep 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
Hurricane Earl is tracking east of the Jersey shore, about 150 miles offshore. The shield of rain will pass by later today, as will a cold frontal boundary from the west.
Cooler and drier air will move in, allowing for clear skies and extremely pleasant weather for the weekend. Things warm up a bit for Labor Day, Monday.
Sat 9/4: Mostly sunny and very pleasant. High 78.
Sun 9/5: Sunny and pleasant. High 76.
posted: Sep 03 2010 at 2:30 pm
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Tropical Weather Update -Thur PM
The 24 hour eastward bias of the models has decreased and greater numbers of tropical and global models are showing the storm near its anticipated track/position about 180 miles east of the NJ shoreline.
There is less concern that the storm will track closer to the coastline than previously thought.
Nonetheless, expect rain and wind at the Jersey shore tomorrow. A series of cold fronts will move through Friday night and Saturday. Things cool down and skies should be sunny and bright in the wake of the storm.
posted: Sep 03 2010 at 9:22 am
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Thu, 02 Sep 2010Tropical Weather Update -Thur AM
The latest storm tracks for Hurricane Earl move it a bit closer to the NJ shoreline. The NOGAPS and one variant of the GFS have it significantly closer. The verification bias for the models continue to show an eastward bias in the 48 hour range.
Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't been more preparation and announcements of a hurricane warning for NJ shoreline. Apparently, the official NHC track of the storm is far enough off the coast that the belief is there won't be significant effects. But I think this storm is too strong and the trends are too far westward not to take this storm seriously.
Again, I think this storm will be closer than expected and could seriously affect the Jersey shore. I'd be happy to be wrong about this. Stay tuned.
posted: Sep 02 2010 at 7:39 am
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Wed, 01 Sep 2010Tropical Weather Update -Wed PM
The various hurricane models continue to show consistency among themselves with hurricane Earl moving about 200 miles off the NJ coastline. That said, the NOGAPS continues to predict a slightly westward track from the pack. Additionally, the trend continues to show the predicted track to be biased towards the E-NE at 48 hours. Despite the official forecast for the storm to be about 200 miles from the NJ coastline, this storm still needs to be watched. I still think the actual storm track may be closer. We'll see.
Stay tuned.
posted: Sep 01 2010 at 7:48 pm
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Tue, 31 Aug 2010Tropical Weather Update -Tues PM
As expected, the latest models continue to show a westward movement to the track of hurricaine Earl. The latest NOGAPS has the hurricaine hugging the coastline as far north as NJ. This might be a major storm event for the MD, DE and NJ shoreline.
Stay tuned.
posted: Aug 31 2010 at 8:13 pm
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Tropical Weather Update -Tues AM
High pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures to our area through Thursday. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s.
Hurricaine Earl, which is expected to curve towards the NE, away from the eastern seaboard, around Thursday. While the tropical models are generally consistent with each other in terms of track, the models continue to show a bias towards the NE that is in error by 100+ kilometers or more in the long term.
I expect that the coming days may revise the track of Earl even closer to our area. Stay tuned!
posted: Aug 31 2010 at 7:17 am
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Sun, 29 Aug 2010Weather Update -Sun PM
High pressure will bring very warm (actually hot) temperatures to our area Monday through Thursday. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s.
Of interest is hurricane Earl, which is expected to curve towards the NE, away from the eastern seaboard, around Thursday. I believe the current track of Earl is very uncertain, and there is the possibility that the high pressure giving us the heat may block the curvature of the storm away from us. Already, the NOGAPS model has the storm much closer to the east coast than it was showing a few days ago. So, to repeat, I expect that the coming days may revise the track of Earl even closer to our area. Stay tuned!
posted: Aug 29 2010 at 5:32 pm
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Sat, 28 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
High pressure will build in for the weekend. The upper air flow will be from the northwest so dry and very pleasant weather is expected. things warm up by Sunday.
Latest MOS forecasts have moved the high temperatures upward for Sunday through Tuesday. A very hot period for the beginning of the week with high temperatures being forecast as high as 97 degrees.
Sun 8/29: Sunny and hot, although dewpoints not too high. High 93.
posted: Aug 28 2010 at 5:44 pm
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Thu, 26 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thurs PM
High pressure will build in for the weekend. The upper air flow will be from the northwest so dry and very pleasant weather is expected. things warm up by Sunday.
Sat 8/28: Sunny and very pleasant. High 85.
Sun 8/29: Sunny and hot, although dewpoints not too high. High 91.
posted: Aug 26 2010 at 9:26 pm
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Tue, 24 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Tues PM
Following this very cool and damp pattern, high pressure will build in for the weekend. The upper air flow will be from the northwest so dry and very pleasant weather is expected.
Sat 8/28: Sunny and very pleasant. High 85.
Sun 8/29: Sunny, continued pleasant and warmer. High 89.
posted: Aug 24 2010 at 9:34 pm
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Sat, 21 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
Latest models have a wet day for Sunday, as low pressure moving through NY state moves a warm front and then a cold front through. Showers start in the morning, then thunderstorms during the afternoon. There may be some sunny breaks in the overcast during the afternoon, but any sunshine will fuel the thunderstorms.
Sun 6/22: Cloudy with showers in the morning, some sunny breaks in the cloud cover, thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82.
posted: Aug 21 2010 at 2:13 pm
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Fri, 20 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
As mentioned last night, a scenario similar to last weekend is developing, where high pressure will nose down from the northeast for Saturday. Unfortunately, there's a frontal boundary to our south. Low pressure is expected to develop to our west and move into NY state on Sunday. The low will drag a warm front through Saturday night and a cold front late Sunday. Showers will precede the cold front on Sunday.
Sat 8/21: Sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Increasing humidity at night. High 86.
Sun 8/22: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms late morning and during the afternoon High 80.
posted: Aug 20 2010 at 8:23 pm
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Wed, 18 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Wed PM
The latest model has a similar scenario as last weekend, with high pressure nosing down from the northeast, keeping dry conditions for the weekend. As was the case last weekend, the high exited quicker than expected for Sunday, so we need to keep an eye on this again.
Sat 8/21: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 88.
Sun 8/22: Mostly sunny and hot. Some clouds possible in the afternoon. High 89
posted: Aug 18 2010 at 10:06 pm
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Tue, 17 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Tues PM
The upcoming weekend looks to have an uncertain forecast as a closed low in northern Canada rotates and retrogrades, pulling small disturbances to our north, and suppresses a frontal boundary to our south.
Right now, the weekend looks mostly dry, although there is much uncertainty about some showers.
Sat 8/21: Uncertain. Likely dry.
Sun 8/22: Uncertain. Likely dry.
posted: Aug 17 2010 at 9:55 pm
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Sat, 14 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
The latest NAM and GFS models show clouds and rain moving in for Sunday. The NAM is faster with the precipitation than the GFS, with showers as early as early afternoon, especially areas west of Philadelphia.
Sat 8/14: Partly sunny, occasional periods of clouds. High 82.
Sun 8/15: Cloudy. More humid Showers possible as early as early afternoon or early evening. High 85.
posted: Aug 14 2010 at 12:46 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat AM
It's uncertain how much cloudiness we'll see this weekend, as some areas,especially towards the shore have an easterly flow. The NAM model has some significant cloudiness for Sunday.
Sat 8/14: Partly sunny, occasional periods of clouds. High 82.
Sun 8/15: Mostly cloudy. More humid Showers possible in the evening. High 85.
posted: Aug 14 2010 at 8:42 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
It is now forecast that the high pressure system will build down from the northeast and allow less of an easterly flow and more of a south to southwesterly flow. This will improve our chances of a dry and partly to mostly sunny weekend.
Sat 8/14: Mostly sunny, occasional clouds. High 81.
Sun 8/15: Mostly sunny, some increase in clouds in the afternoon. Showers possible in the evening. High 85.
posted: Aug 14 2010 at 8:31 am
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Thu, 12 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu AM
A low confidence forecast as a number of surface weather features interact. High pressure will move off to the northeast. An easterly flow around the high off the Atlantic ocean will keep temps down and may result in cloudiness. A slow moving cold front will move towards us and the southwesterly flow ahead of the front will interact with the easterly flow from the high.
The result will be considerable cloudiness and the chance of showers. Even that's not a certainty, since sometimes we can get sunny skies in this situation. Right now, the weekend looks mostly dry, although there is also uncertainty about the showers.
Sat 8/14: Considerable cloudiness and warm. High 85. The possibility of a shower can't be ruled out. Low confidence forecast.
Sun 8/15: Mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers as the day progresses. High 84.
posted: Aug 12 2010 at 7:45 am
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Wed, 11 Aug 2010Solar-Climate Forecast Discussion 8-11-10
Back in June, it became clear to me that the cool climate trends of last summer were likely not to be repeated this summer. I took a neutral, wait and see approach to evaluate how much the recent solar minimum might affect temperature trends.
The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009, with a significant increase in sunspot activity that continues to ramp up during July and August 2010. While activity of this solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is expected to be lower than the previous one that peaked in April 2001, increases in solar flux, sunspots, solar wind and flares have already begun.
Last winter, the minimal decrease in temperatures was likely the result of the greenhouse effect overriding the effects of lower solar irradiance. Indeed, I will be the first to say that I had expected a much colder winter considering that the solar irradiance had fallen so much with over 800 sunspot-free days.
With such warm temperatures this summer, it's becoming clearer that the greenhouse effect and global warming is significant. Adding the effects of the global warming and the increasing solar cycle together seems to suggest that the coming years will see record breaking high temps and warm nightly minimum temperatures.
Back in June, I wrote that "I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues" about the intensity of the greenhouse effect. The thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. Maybe it's a premature conclusion, but I think the evidence is in about the climate trends.
I believe we will continue to see above normal temperatures for the balance of the summer and for the fall and winter of 2010. Additionally, I think the pattern will be drier with much less precipitation and areas may begin to develop drought conditions.
posted: Aug 11 2010 at 6:51 pm
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Fri, 06 Aug 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
High pressure builds in for the weekend. Lower temps and humidity expected.
Sat 8/7: Sunny and warm. High 86.
Sun 8/8: Sunny and very warm. More humid. High 88.
posted: Aug 06 2010 at 2:57 pm
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Sat, 31 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
High pressure on Saturday will give way to weak disturbances moving along a weak frontal boundary, giving us a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
At least for the first days of August, we'll have temps in the 80s, although there may be some unsettled weather on Wednesday as another front moves through.
Sat 7/31: Sunny and warm. High 85.
Sun 8/1: Considerable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 81
posted: Jul 31 2010 at 12:38 am
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Thu, 29 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thurs AM
Some heat relief on the way-- Following a cold front passage today (Thurs), the first half of the weekend will have sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. The front, which will be not too far to our south will allow impulses to move along it, giving us a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
At least for the first days of August, we'll have temps in the 80s, although there may be some unsettled weather on Wednesday.
Sat 7/31: Sunny and warm. High 87.
Sun 8/1: Considerable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms. High 81
posted: Jul 29 2010 at 7:49 am
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Sun, 25 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sun PM
A front moving through is setting off showers and thunderstorms, even though the GFS and NAM have POPS less than 40%.
The NAM MOS had less than a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms, althought last night's NAM FOUS data did suggest some precip for this afternoon. That said, there have been several thunderstorms over the past few weeks that weren't accurately predicted by the models. So what seemed like a tranquil transitional day from the heat wave has turned cloudy and wet.
Sun 7/25: Mostly sunny hot. Thunderstorms and showers in the afternoon.
posted: Jul 25 2010 at 3:08 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sun PM
A front moving through is setting off showers and thunderstorms, even though the GFS and NAM have POPS less than 40%
Sun 7/25: Mostly sunny hot. Thunderstorms and showers in the afternoon.
posted: Jul 25 2010 at 2:17 pm
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Thu, 22 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Thurs PM
A southwesterly flow of hot and very humid air will be with us over the weekend. A weak front will pass through late Saturday night, bringing less humidity but still hot temps.
The latest GFS MOS forecast for Philadelphia has a high of 101 for Saturday; the NAM MOS has a high of 97.
Sat 7/24: Sunny, very hot and humid. Slight chance of a thunderstorm, late. High 97-100.
Sun 7/25: Mostly sunny hot, a bit less humid. High 96.
posted: Jul 22 2010 at 10:18 pm
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Wed, 21 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed PM
A southwesterly flow of hot and very humid air will be with us over the weekend. A weak front will pass through late Saturday.
Sat 7/24: Sunny, hot and humid. Slight chance of a thunderstorm, late. High 97.
Sun 7/25: Mostly sunny hot, a bit less humid. High 93.
posted: Jul 21 2010 at 11:32 pm
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Thu, 15 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Thur PM
A southwesterly flow of hot and very humid air on Friday will be replaced by a slightly less humid flow as a weak "cold" front (actually a wind shift/dew point line) moves through our area before daybreak on Saturday. There was some concern that the front would stall over us, but it now looks like it will stall and dissipate just to our south, affecting Delaware. Slightly drier air moves in on Sunday, but it will still be in the 90's
Sat 7/17: A thunderstorm possible before daybreak, then mostly sunny, hot and a bit less humid. Slight chance of a thunderstorm, but most places dry. High 95.
Sun 7/18: Mostly sunny hot, a bit less humid. High 93.
posted: Jul 15 2010 at 6:03 pm
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Sat, 10 Jul 2010Isolated Thunderstorm with Virga Captured!
Here are some pictures of the northwest side of an isolated, slow moving thunderstorm seen about 7:30PM near Fort Washington, PA yesterday. The downdraft is bringing clouds and rain to toward the ground. This thunderstorm was moving from SE to NNW and this was the advancing edge.
posted: Jul 10 2010 at 7:52 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat AM
I didn't have time to do much weather this week. Clearly, things have changes since my forecast on Wednesday. It's raining out!
The "cold" front is moving through now (Sat morning) instead of this afternoon. Much needed rain is falling and will likely continue through the mid-day hours, tapering and ending during the later afternoon. The cold front is really a wind-shift line and change in dewpoint. Temps return to the 90s tomorrow.
Sat 7/10: Cloudy with rain, tapering to showers during the afternoon. High 79-81
Sun 7/11: Mostly sunny, very warm, somewhat humid. High 90.
Solar Discussion July: Solar Cycle 24 is underway, although the increase in sunspot activity has fallen below predicted values at this stage of the cycle. Solar flux remains low, as does sunspot number. What has changed is the velocity of the solar wind. The solar wind was very quiet last summer, with speeds around 300 Km/sec. This year, solar wind values are much higher, in the 400-700 km/sec range. While solar wind is associated with coronal holes, not only flares and sunspots, this appears to be measurably increased this year. Are increases in solar wind associated with less cloud cover, less rain, droughts and heat waves? It's not clear, although there are theories making this association, specifically that the higher solar wind reduces high energy cosmic ray seeding of clouds. When was the last heat wave on July 4th? 11 years ago. What's the average solar cycle length? 11 years. Not scientific, but these drought and heat cycles seem to go in cycles of this length.
Back in April I took a temperature-neutral approach to this summer's climate. I'm still there. What I do think we might begin to see is a continuing decrease in precipitation, both with the end of the El Nino and the increase in solar activity. Perhaps we're seeing the beginning of a drought pattern? Stay tuned.
posted: Jul 10 2010 at 9:27 am
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Wed, 07 Jul 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed PM
The Bermuda high that gave us the record temps will move east and a cold front will move through Saturday afternoon bringing more tolerable temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. As has been the recent trend, the thunderstorms that develop may weaken as they move eastward over Philadelphia and NJ. They are unlikely to significantly lessen the local dry conditions.
Sat 7/10: Partly cloudy/sunny, warm, very humid. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 85.
Sun 7/11: Mostly sunny warm, less humid. High 89.
Solar Discussion July: Solar Cycle 24 is underway, although the increase in sunspot activity has fallen below predicted values at this stage of the cycle. Solar flux remains low, as does sunspot number. What has changed is the velocity of the solar wind. The solar wind was very quiet last summer, with speeds around 300 Km/sec. This year, solar wind values are much higher, in the 400-700 km/sec range. While solar wind is associated with coronal holes, not only flares and sunspots, this appears to be measurably increased this year. Are increases in solar wind associated with less cloud cover, less rain, droughts and heat waves? It's not clear, although there are theories making this association, specifically that the higher solar wind reduces high energy cosmic ray seeding of clouds. When was the last heat wave on July 4th? 11 years ago. What's the average solar cycle length? 11 years. Not scientific, but these drought and heat cycles seem to go in cycles of this length.
Back in April I took a temperature-neutral approach to this summer's climate. I'm still there. What I do think we might begin to see is a continuing decrease in precipitation, both with the end of the El Nino and the increase in solar activity. Perhaps we're seeing the beginning of a drought pattern? Stay tuned.
posted: Jul 07 2010 at 5:31 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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