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Sun, 15 Nov 2009
Solar Cycle- Philly Climate Forecast for 2009-2010
Solar activity has continued to gradually increase and solar flux values have gradually risen into 70s. There have been several areas of active sunspots emerging over recent weeks and an older very active area is rotating back into view.
Solar Cycle 24 has truly begun, albeit a year or two late. As a result of having had solar activity remain so low for such a long time, the effects of low total solar irradiance will likely to continue to affect our climate in the short term.
Despite some stretches of warm weather (this upcoming week being one of them), I believe we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern on average for the fall and most of our winter.
This colder than average pattern will likely extend well into our spring if there is any truth to the solar cycle having an influence on our climate.
posted: Nov 15 2009 at 12:12 pm
Fri, 07 Aug 2009Solar - Climate Discussion:
The visible sun is again spotless. There is a bit of increased solar activity rotating into earth view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. While we will certainly see some typical summer weather, continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
posted: Aug 07 2009 at 3:23 pm
Fri, 24 Jul 2009NY Times Covers the Recent Solar Activity - Weather Connection
My regular readers know that I've been commenting on the connection with recent low solar activity and cooler temperatures since Oct 17th, 2008
Here's a recent NY Times article that provides a very balanced review of the issue: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
posted: Jul 24 2009 at 8:35 am
Tue, 07 Jul 2009Solar Irradiance
In recent months, I've spoken of decreases in solar flux and solar irradiance with the current sunspot cycle nadir. In addition, I've suggested that the current cool climate pattern we've experienced is likely connected to this decrease in solar activity.
Below are some sites with great information:
Total Solar Irradiance Data
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Solar Cycle 24 Site
Here's a somewhat controversial blog, but I find it interesting: Dalton Minimum Returns (My sense is that the author feels that global warming was more solar than man-made. I don't subscribe to that belief.)
Hope you enjoy these links!
posted: Jul 07 2009 at 9:33 pm
Sun, 10 May 2009Philadelphia Weather and Climate Discussion
Despite the short heat wave of two weeks ago, this spring continues to be on the cool side. Solar activity continues to be extremely low and the sunspot cycle Number 24 still has not taken off yet. My climate outlook continues to be a cool spring and cool summer on average.
That said, there are some signs that the sun might be finally waking up. Recently there have been a two areas of solar flares that had been all but absent for most of the past year. Once the sunspot cycle begins in earnest, the increase in solar wind will reduce the level of high energy cosmic rays that tend to seed our atmosphere for cloud formation. So with the increase in irradiance of the sun and the decrease in cosmic ray associated cloud formation, we can expect warming trends with the next solar cycle. (There are scientists who think the next sunspot cycle level will be very supressed, giving a very cool climate for many more years. It remains to be seen.) For more information, check out The Solar Prediction Center and a rather interesting blog that I like to visit called The Dalton Minimum Returns
I know this topic seems to be far removed from my usual Philadelphia Weather forecast, but in recent years, I've been fascinated by the science and speculation that solar activity plays a greater role in climate trends than previously thought.
Getting back to weather: As for the upcoming weekend, things aren't so clean cut either. A general upper level cyclonic cool flow will try to re-establish itself, with several cold front passages. The timing of these fronts is not certain at this time, but a major front looks like it will cross our area sometime on Sunday. Stay tuned.
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posted: May 10 2009 at 9:21 pm
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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