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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Tue, 12 Nov 2013
Philadelphia Winter Climate Outlook -Nov 2013
I've been trying to get a handle on the upcoming winter climate forecast. This year appears to be more difficult than most to identify a "pattern" that will influence our weather. Those who regularly follow my forecasts know that I generally put a lot of stock on our solar cycle. In that regard, we are just approaching the second solar peak that's often seen in solar cycle maximas. However, this solar cycle maximum is significantly lower than past cycles and it follows an rather extended solar minimum. So the solar influences (higher temps and dry conditions) seem less pronounced than in past recent decades.
Most notable for many months has been a persistent dip and amplification of the jet stream as a result of a very active polar vortex, followed by significant warm ups. This suggests periods of very cold weather alternating with mild conditions. With the alternations come significant storms, although ice-type storms associated warm fronts appears to be favored with the current pattern. I believe this pattern of extreme cold followed by briefer warm periods will continue.
On average, I think this winter in Philadelphia may lean towards colder than normal temperatures, despite global warming, with large swings in temperatures. This favors above normal precipitation, particularly in the snow and especially ice precipitation types for our area. I guess we'll see.

posted: Nov 12 2013 at 9:45 pm

[/weather/weather_trends] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Tue, 12 Nov 2013 Philadelphia Winter Climate Outlook -Nov 2013 I've been trying to get a handle on the upcoming winter climate forecast. This year appears to be more difficult than most to identify a "pattern" that will influence our weather. Those who regularly follow my forecasts know that I generally put a lot of stock on our solar cycle. In that regard, we are just approaching the second solar peak that's often seen in solar cycle maximas. However, this solar cycle maximum is significantly lower than past cycles and it follows an rather extended solar minimum. So the solar influences (higher temps and dry conditions) seem less pronounced than in past recent decades. Most notable for many months has been a persistent dip and amplification of the jet stream as a result of a very active polar vortex, followed by significant warm ups. This suggests periods of very cold weather alternating with mild conditions. With the alternations come significant storms, although ice-type storms associated warm fronts appears to be favored with the current pattern. I believe this pattern of extreme cold followed by briefer warm periods will continue. On average, I think this winter in Philadelphia may lean towards colder than normal temperatures, despite global warming, with large swings in temperatures. This favors above normal precipitation, particularly in the snow and especially ice precipitation types for our area. I guess we'll see. posted: Nov 12 2013 at 9:45 pm [/weather/weather_trends] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.