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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Thu, 22 Nov 2012
2012-2013 Winter Philadelphia Climate Outlook
It's getting late in the fall season and I usually try to put forth my Winter Climate Forecast by this time of the year. This year, I'm finding the prediction for this coming winter less clear-cut. My general expectation was that we would have a colder than normal earlier winter season through December, followed by a milder than average January and February.
My temperature forecast is guided by the current peak of the solar cycle and its associated increase in total solar irradiation. Superimposed on the solar cycle increase are the clear signals of global warming, so my above normal temperature forecast seems like a slam dunk. (But nothing in climate prediction is really a slam-dunk.)
While a warmer than average temp forecast might appear to mean less snow, it really doesn't take much cold air to have snow. The current pattern (High pressure blocking in the Atlantic) favors some very stormy weather - yes, that means snow - for the winter here, although there is a good chance that the pattern might change by the end of December, since this pattern has been with us for much of the Fall and they tend to change after several months.
So in summary, I expect milder on average temperatures, but more than average precipitation (likely more snow/ice instead of more rain), based on the current pattern. I have lower confidence in this winter prediction compared to recent past years.

posted: Nov 22 2012 at 9:14 am

[/weather/nov12] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Thu, 22 Nov 2012 2012-2013 Winter Philadelphia Climate Outlook It's getting late in the fall season and I usually try to put forth my Winter Climate Forecast by this time of the year. This year, I'm finding the prediction for this coming winter less clear-cut. My general expectation was that we would have a colder than normal earlier winter season through December, followed by a milder than average January and February. My temperature forecast is guided by the current peak of the solar cycle and its associated increase in total solar irradiation. Superimposed on the solar cycle increase are the clear signals of global warming, so my above normal temperature forecast seems like a slam dunk. (But nothing in climate prediction is really a slam-dunk.) While a warmer than average temp forecast might appear to mean less snow, it really doesn't take much cold air to have snow. The current pattern (High pressure blocking in the Atlantic) favors some very stormy weather - yes, that means snow - for the winter here, although there is a good chance that the pattern might change by the end of December, since this pattern has been with us for much of the Fall and they tend to change after several months. So in summary, I expect milder on average temperatures, but more than average precipitation (likely more snow/ice instead of more rain), based on the current pattern. I have lower confidence in this winter prediction compared to recent past years. posted: Nov 22 2012 at 9:14 am [/weather/nov12] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.