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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 10 Feb 2012
Philly Winter Weather Update- Fri 7PM
This afternoon's GFS and NAM model runs have cut back on the precipitation expected later this evening and tomorrow morning. Total QPF values are closer to 0.20 inches water, some of which will fall as rain or very wet snow before a change over to snow towards morning.
So it's looking like a minimal snow for the immediate PHL area. The next model runs become available about 9:15 PM for the NAM and about 10:45 for the GFS. I'll update if things change.

posted: Feb 10 2012 at 7:39 pm

[/weather/feb12] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Update- Fri 10AM
The latest NAM data just became available. It shows over 0.40+ inches of water falling as a mix of rain and snow starting late Friday night and ending as all snow during the morning on Saturday.
Temperatures around sunrise will dip to freezing. Temperatures aloft support snow for much of the time, although the amount of surface melt is uncertain. More on grassy surfaces still likely, although early morning driving Saturday may be challenging.
Areas to the north and west of Philadelphia will have less total QPF (QPF, or quantity of precipatiion falling), but more will be in the form of accumulating snowfall.
Either way, the current trend is towards more precipitation and as much as 2-3 inches is now possible when all is said and done. This system is still evolving, so expect further changes in the forecast.

posted: Feb 10 2012 at 10:26 am

[/weather/feb12] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
An interesting forecast for this evening, as both the NAM and GFS forecast low pressure to form on the NC coast and move up and away. Enough cold air aloft will allow most to fall as wet snow, but both models now keep the ground surface temperatures above freezing. The NAM cranks out considerable precipitation, which if were all snow would be over 4 inches. However, with surface temperatures forecast to be in the mid 30s, it's hard to see how there will be much accumulation.
So a grassy surface accumulation is most likely in the city area, but areas north and west will have less precipitation but greater likelihood of surface accumulations. With so many variables, confidence in any accumulation forecast is very low at this time.
I'll update later this afternoon and again this evening. Stay tuned.
Sat 2/11: Cloudy with light snow ending during the morning. Some flurries in the afternoon. Windy and much colder. High 35.
Sun 2/12: Sunny windy and very cold. High 29.

posted: Feb 10 2012 at 8:48 am

[/weather/feb12] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 10 Feb 2012 Philly Winter Weather Update- Fri 7PM This afternoon's GFS and NAM model runs have cut back on the precipitation expected later this evening and tomorrow morning. Total QPF values are closer to 0.20 inches water, some of which will fall as rain or very wet snow before a change over to snow towards morning. So it's looking like a minimal snow for the immediate PHL area. The next model runs become available about 9:15 PM for the NAM and about 10:45 for the GFS. I'll update if things change. posted: Feb 10 2012 at 7:39 pm [/weather/feb12] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Update- Fri 10AM The latest NAM data just became available. It shows over 0.40+ inches of water falling as a mix of rain and snow starting late Friday night and ending as all snow during the morning on Saturday. Temperatures around sunrise will dip to freezing. Temperatures aloft support snow for much of the time, although the amount of surface melt is uncertain. More on grassy surfaces still likely, although early morning driving Saturday may be challenging. Areas to the north and west of Philadelphia will have less total QPF (QPF, or quantity of precipatiion falling), but more will be in the form of accumulating snowfall. Either way, the current trend is towards more precipitation and as much as 2-3 inches is now possible when all is said and done. This system is still evolving, so expect further changes in the forecast. posted: Feb 10 2012 at 10:26 am [/weather/feb12] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM An interesting forecast for this evening, as both the NAM and GFS forecast low pressure to form on the NC coast and move up and away. Enough cold air aloft will allow most to fall as wet snow, but both models now keep the ground surface temperatures above freezing. The NAM cranks out considerable precipitation, which if were all snow would be over 4 inches. However, with surface temperatures forecast to be in the mid 30s, it's hard to see how there will be much accumulation. So a grassy surface accumulation is most likely in the city area, but areas north and west will have less precipitation but greater likelihood of surface accumulations. With so many variables, confidence in any accumulation forecast is very low at this time. I'll update later this afternoon and again this evening. Stay tuned. Sat 2/11: Cloudy with light snow ending during the morning. Some flurries in the afternoon. Windy and much colder. High 35. Sun 2/12: Sunny windy and very cold. High 29. posted: Feb 10 2012 at 8:48 am [/weather/feb12] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.