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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Fri, 20 Jan 2012
Winter Weather Update -10 PM
The latest NAM has just become available, along with the latest run of the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model.
These models continue to show between 3 and 4 inches of snow for Philadelphia, north and west by 7AM. The snow transitions to freezing rain about 7 AM where it continues to fall as freezing rain for several hours.
The freezing rain and rain ends about 1 PM. Expect hazardous driving conditions for much of the morning, north and west of Philadelphia.

posted: Jan 20 2012 at 10:02 pm

[/weather/jan12] permanent link

Philadelphia Winter Weather Forecast - Fri 6 PM
A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday.
All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM.
The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker.
Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some icing problems.
Precipitation ends early afternoon.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 35.
Sun 1/22: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. High 38.

posted: Jan 20 2012 at 6:22 pm

[/weather/jan12] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri 2 PM
A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday.
All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM.
The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker.
Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some problems.
Precipitation ends early afternoon.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 38.
Sun 1/22: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 40.

posted: Jan 20 2012 at 2:42 pm

[/weather/jan12] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 20 Jan 2012 Winter Weather Update -10 PM The latest NAM has just become available, along with the latest run of the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model. These models continue to show between 3 and 4 inches of snow for Philadelphia, north and west by 7AM. The snow transitions to freezing rain about 7 AM where it continues to fall as freezing rain for several hours. The freezing rain and rain ends about 1 PM. Expect hazardous driving conditions for much of the morning, north and west of Philadelphia. posted: Jan 20 2012 at 10:02 pm [/weather/jan12] permanent link Philadelphia Winter Weather Forecast - Fri 6 PM A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday. All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM. The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker. Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some icing problems. Precipitation ends early afternoon. Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 35. Sun 1/22: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. High 38. posted: Jan 20 2012 at 6:22 pm [/weather/jan12] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri 2 PM A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday. All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM. The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker. Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some problems. Precipitation ends early afternoon. Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 38. Sun 1/22: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 40. posted: Jan 20 2012 at 2:42 pm [/weather/jan12] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.