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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sun, 27 Nov 2011
Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast- December
While climate forecasting is not my forte (for that matter, I don't think it's anyone's forte) I do like to share with my readers what I'm thinking about regarding the upcoming 2011-2012 winter season.
My regular readers know that two years ago, I put great stock in the solar cycle (and a lesser extent the sea surface temperature cycles) to predict a very cold winter.
We have now reached a point in the current solar cycle where the expected observed increase in total solar irradiance has become evident. We are two years away from the solar maximum. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than our last two cycles, and we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming winter will approach the very mild winters we had in 1999 and 2000.
During those winters, we had unseasonably warm periods throughout the winter. Certainly we had stretches of cold weather and snow, but the 60-70 degree temps we had this weekend were very similar at that stage of the solar cycle. Add to this the greenhouse gases and I think we will have large stretches of very mild weather this winter and on average it will be very warmer than normal.
In recent past winters, we haven't really seen winter-like weather until after December 15th and I expect that to occur this year as well. But overall, I think we'll see repeated long stretches of mild weather occurring in December, January, and February this season.
I guess we'll find out if the solar cycle does affect our winter this year.

posted: Nov 27 2011 at 8:58 pm

[/weather/nov11] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sun, 27 Nov 2011 Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast- December While climate forecasting is not my forte (for that matter, I don't think it's anyone's forte) I do like to share with my readers what I'm thinking about regarding the upcoming 2011-2012 winter season. My regular readers know that two years ago, I put great stock in the solar cycle (and a lesser extent the sea surface temperature cycles) to predict a very cold winter. We have now reached a point in the current solar cycle where the expected observed increase in total solar irradiance has become evident. We are two years away from the solar maximum. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than our last two cycles, and we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming winter will approach the very mild winters we had in 1999 and 2000. During those winters, we had unseasonably warm periods throughout the winter. Certainly we had stretches of cold weather and snow, but the 60-70 degree temps we had this weekend were very similar at that stage of the solar cycle. Add to this the greenhouse gases and I think we will have large stretches of very mild weather this winter and on average it will be very warmer than normal. In recent past winters, we haven't really seen winter-like weather until after December 15th and I expect that to occur this year as well. But overall, I think we'll see repeated long stretches of mild weather occurring in December, January, and February this season. I guess we'll find out if the solar cycle does affect our winter this year. posted: Nov 27 2011 at 8:58 pm [/weather/nov11] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.