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Philly Winter Weather Update- Mon 11 PM
The latest NAM and HRRR models now show only an inch or less of snow for the immediate Philadelphia area by daybreak Tuesday. The atmosphere warms in the upper levels, but the NAM continues with temperatures at or below freezing near the surface for much of the day and evening Tuesday. Very light precipitation will fall as sleet and freezing rain from about 7 AM onward on Tuesday.
If the cold NAM model is correct, a significant ice buildup is possible for Philadelphia and north/west of the city for much of Tuesday and early Tuesday night. During the daylight hours, road surfaces may be just wet, although other surfaces may develop significant ice buildup.
During the evening hours Tuesday, untreated road surfaces may become icey as well. Temps rise before daybreak Wednesday as heavy rain falls into the early afternoon.
posted: Jan 31 2011 at 10:53 pm
[/weather/jan11] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update- Mon AM
Today's model runs have been consistent with a forecast of a warm-frontal type light snow for Tuesday in advance of the main low pressure system that will affect us on Wednesday.
The NAM is predicting 1-3 inches of snow on Tuesday morning, becoming sleet in the afternoon and then light freezing rain by Tuesday evening and then heavy rain for Wednesday. The majority of this storm will be rain for us, in marked contrast to our last storm. There is little uncertainty about this being a mostly rain event for Philadelphia on Wednesday.
What is uncertain is the amount of ice buildup late Tuesday and Tuesday night. It may be a bit dicey for the evening commute of Tuesday and possibly the early commute hours of Wednesday morning, where a freezing rain situation might make driving difficult. For areas north and west of Philadelphia, a significant ice accumulation is possible by early Wednesday morning.
So while the major part of this storm will be a mostly rain event on Wednesday, there will be an ice component for Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. The amount of ice may be significant in areas north and west of Philadelphia. It does not appear that it will change to snow at the end.
posted: Jan 31 2011 at 7:26 am
[/weather/jan11] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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