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Wed, 26 Jan 2011
Philly Winter Weather Update- Wed 7PM
As everyone knows, the models underestimated the precipitation this morning. But the rest of the scenario seems to be verifying as predicted by the NAM model.
For the time period from now (7PM) to midnight, the NAM has been very consistent in pumping out almost 1 inch of water this six hour period! This is translating into an incredibly heavy snowfall until just past midnight. Final totals could easily approach 9-12 inches if the NAM verifies.
The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model predicts similar amounts (8-12) inches of snow for the Philadelphia area by the time things end before after midnight. Areas in NJ to the east, less. Areas just to the west of Philadelphia (Chester County, Upper Montgomery County) may have well over 12 inches.
posted: Jan 26 2011 at 7:34 pm
[/weather/jan11] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update- Wed 10 AM
The storm is already more impressive than any of the models predicted last night.
The latest NAM data just available continues a cold thermal profile (for PHL airport area gridpoint). Upper atmosphere temps warm a bit early afternoon, but key temps in the lower atmosphere support wet snow, freezing rain until about 4-5 PM. Temps on the ground may warm to 35 degrees during the early afternoon.
For the time period after 6 PM tonight, the NAM has been very consistent in pumping out almost 1 inch of water in a 6 hour period! That looks like it may translate into an incredibly heavy snowfall during the evening up until midnight. Final totals could easily approach 9-12 inches if the NAM verifies.
The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model predicts similar amounts (9-12) inches of snow for the Philadelphia area by the time things end before after midnight. Stay tuned.
posted: Jan 26 2011 at 9:59 am
[/weather/jan11] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update- Wed 7 AM
The storm is already more impressive than any of the models predicted last night. The NAM FOUS data from the 1 AM model run has temps remaining in the all-snow range even for Philadelphia. But the new experimental HRRR has the snow changing to freezing rain for the immediate PHL area, then back to snow after 4 PM. In past storms, the NAM FOUS has been reliable.
The same NAM FOUS data, if correct, would give us well over a foot of heavy snow by daybreak Thurs morning. Stay tuned.
posted: Jan 26 2011 at 7:43 am
[/weather/jan11] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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