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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Tue, 11 Jan 2011
Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 9PM
The latest NAM model data is just becoming available. For Philadelphia, it has 0.31 inches water falling between now and 1 AM. This is about 3-5 inches of snow for most of immediate Philadelphia, with more north and east of the city (around Trenton, eastern portions of Bucks county and northeast), less south and southwest. Areas of Chester county will have much less.
The NAM has the storm dry-slotting after 1 AM, so little additional accumulation is expected around PHL during the early morning hours.
The snow should certainly be over by daybreak tomorrow.

posted: Jan 11 2011 at 9:16 pm

[/weather/jan11] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 7PM
This afternoon's models look very unimpressive for Philadelphia. Calling this a major storm appears to be hype.
Based on today's models, it looks like 3-5 inches is the most likely amount in and around Philadelphia. It will essentially end near daybreak tomorrow. The predictions of higher amounts look unlikely. I'll update later.

posted: Jan 11 2011 at 7:28 pm

[/weather/jan11] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 12PM
Both the NAM and the GFS has a minimal 3-4 inches.
Both models are confronting a situation where two storm centers redevelop into one coastal storm. I've seen past situations where this scenario is handled poorly by both models---specifically where energy transfers from the western storm to the coastal storm and almost 'jumps' over us, giving us minimal snow totals. So, unlike the storm of two weeks ago which had a single low pressure center, the snow totals for this system are very uncertain for us here.
While not a cop-out, the forecast range of 3-4 inches may be as good a guess as we can make with this storm. Later model runs today may (or may not) clarify this situation.

posted: Jan 11 2011 at 12:22 pm

[/weather/jan11] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 7AM
The 1 AM reruns of the GFS and NAM models continue with the differences in precipitation totals expected from tonight's storm with the NAM. The NAM continues with a significant snowfall (>8 Inches) while the GFS has a minimal 3-4 inches.
The precip differences in these models with this storm has less to do with storm track and more to do with differences in physics of the models. Both models are confronting a situation where two storm centers redevelop into one coastal storm. I've seen past situations where this scenario is handled poorly by both models---specifically where energy transfers from the western storm to the coastal storm and almost 'jumps' over us, giving us minimal snow totals. So, unlike the storm of two weeks ago which had a single low pressure center, the snow totals for this system are very uncertain for us here.
While not a cop-out, the forecast range of 3-9 inches may be as good a guess as we can make with this storm. Later model runs today may (or may not) clarify this situation.

posted: Jan 11 2011 at 7:44 am

[/weather/jan11] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Tue, 11 Jan 2011 Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 9PM The latest NAM model data is just becoming available. For Philadelphia, it has 0.31 inches water falling between now and 1 AM. This is about 3-5 inches of snow for most of immediate Philadelphia, with more north and east of the city (around Trenton, eastern portions of Bucks county and northeast), less south and southwest. Areas of Chester county will have much less. The NAM has the storm dry-slotting after 1 AM, so little additional accumulation is expected around PHL during the early morning hours. The snow should certainly be over by daybreak tomorrow. posted: Jan 11 2011 at 9:16 pm [/weather/jan11] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 7PM This afternoon's models look very unimpressive for Philadelphia. Calling this a major storm appears to be hype. Based on today's models, it looks like 3-5 inches is the most likely amount in and around Philadelphia. It will essentially end near daybreak tomorrow. The predictions of higher amounts look unlikely. I'll update later. posted: Jan 11 2011 at 7:28 pm [/weather/jan11] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 12PM Both the NAM and the GFS has a minimal 3-4 inches. Both models are confronting a situation where two storm centers redevelop into one coastal storm. I've seen past situations where this scenario is handled poorly by both models---specifically where energy transfers from the western storm to the coastal storm and almost 'jumps' over us, giving us minimal snow totals. So, unlike the storm of two weeks ago which had a single low pressure center, the snow totals for this system are very uncertain for us here. While not a cop-out, the forecast range of 3-4 inches may be as good a guess as we can make with this storm. Later model runs today may (or may not) clarify this situation. posted: Jan 11 2011 at 12:22 pm [/weather/jan11] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 7AM The 1 AM reruns of the GFS and NAM models continue with the differences in precipitation totals expected from tonight's storm with the NAM. The NAM continues with a significant snowfall (>8 Inches) while the GFS has a minimal 3-4 inches. The precip differences in these models with this storm has less to do with storm track and more to do with differences in physics of the models. Both models are confronting a situation where two storm centers redevelop into one coastal storm. I've seen past situations where this scenario is handled poorly by both models---specifically where energy transfers from the western storm to the coastal storm and almost 'jumps' over us, giving us minimal snow totals. So, unlike the storm of two weeks ago which had a single low pressure center, the snow totals for this system are very uncertain for us here. While not a cop-out, the forecast range of 3-9 inches may be as good a guess as we can make with this storm. Later model runs today may (or may not) clarify this situation. posted: Jan 11 2011 at 7:44 am [/weather/jan11] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.