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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Wed, 11 Aug 2010
Solar-Climate Forecast Discussion 8-11-10
Back in June, it became clear to me that the cool climate trends of last summer were likely not to be repeated this summer. I took a neutral, wait and see approach to evaluate how much the recent solar minimum might affect temperature trends.
The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009, with a significant increase in sunspot activity that continues to ramp up during July and August 2010. While activity of this solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is expected to be lower than the previous one that peaked in April 2001, increases in solar flux, sunspots, solar wind and flares have already begun.
Last winter, the minimal decrease in temperatures was likely the result of the greenhouse effect overriding the effects of lower solar irradiance. Indeed, I will be the first to say that I had expected a much colder winter considering that the solar irradiance had fallen so much with over 800 sunspot-free days.
With such warm temperatures this summer, it's becoming clearer that the greenhouse effect and global warming is significant. Adding the effects of the global warming and the increasing solar cycle together seems to suggest that the coming years will see record breaking high temps and warm nightly minimum temperatures.
Back in June, I wrote that "I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues" about the intensity of the greenhouse effect. The thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. Maybe it's a premature conclusion, but I think the evidence is in about the climate trends.
I believe we will continue to see above normal temperatures for the balance of the summer and for the fall and winter of 2010. Additionally, I think the pattern will be drier with much less precipitation and areas may begin to develop drought conditions.

posted: Aug 11 2010 at 6:51 pm

[/weather/aug10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 11 Aug 2010 Solar-Climate Forecast Discussion 8-11-10 Back in June, it became clear to me that the cool climate trends of last summer were likely not to be repeated this summer. I took a neutral, wait and see approach to evaluate how much the recent solar minimum might affect temperature trends. The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009, with a significant increase in sunspot activity that continues to ramp up during July and August 2010. While activity of this solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is expected to be lower than the previous one that peaked in April 2001, increases in solar flux, sunspots, solar wind and flares have already begun. Last winter, the minimal decrease in temperatures was likely the result of the greenhouse effect overriding the effects of lower solar irradiance. Indeed, I will be the first to say that I had expected a much colder winter considering that the solar irradiance had fallen so much with over 800 sunspot-free days. With such warm temperatures this summer, it's becoming clearer that the greenhouse effect and global warming is significant. Adding the effects of the global warming and the increasing solar cycle together seems to suggest that the coming years will see record breaking high temps and warm nightly minimum temperatures. Back in June, I wrote that "I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues" about the intensity of the greenhouse effect. The thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. Maybe it's a premature conclusion, but I think the evidence is in about the climate trends. I believe we will continue to see above normal temperatures for the balance of the summer and for the fall and winter of 2010. Additionally, I think the pattern will be drier with much less precipitation and areas may begin to develop drought conditions. posted: Aug 11 2010 at 6:51 pm [/weather/aug10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.