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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sun, 23 May 2010
Solar Climate Discussion 5-23-10
Since last summer, I have been forecasting that the prolonged period of relative solar inactivity that corresponded with the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24 would result in cooler temperatures for the fall and winter of 2009-2010. This would occur despite the warming influence of an El ni\361o and greenhouse gases. While the evidence for this trend doesn't necessarily show in Philadelphia's climate data, it certainly shows in areas of the southeastern US.
The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009 with the increase in sunspots that was observed hailing the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.
Solar cycle 24 has truly ramped up, although many predict that this cycle's maximum will be lower than previous cycles during the past 30 years.
With the recent increase in solar activity and solar wind, are the effects of the this lull in activity gone? Do the low solar flux effects accumulate, or are they subtle, and with the increase in recent activity, the effects become unnoticeable? With such a mild March, is the hypothesized cooling from last year's low solar irradiance proven false?
These are questions that scientists who study solar effects of climate are trying to answer. I certainly don't have the answer. I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues. One thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. This suggests that either the"solar effect" is minimal or, more likely, the greenhouse signal is able to overshadow the the lowered solar effect.
Recently, solar activity has gone into a lull again and solar flux is below the predicted value for cycle 24. It's a wait and see approach. We will see if the solar minimum continues to suppress the effects of greenhouse warming. Volcanic ash from the Iceland volcano is also contributing to cooler temps. The current cool temps are expected to linger into June.

posted: May 23 2010 at 4:26 pm

[/weather/may10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sun, 23 May 2010 Solar Climate Discussion 5-23-10 Since last summer, I have been forecasting that the prolonged period of relative solar inactivity that corresponded with the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24 would result in cooler temperatures for the fall and winter of 2009-2010. This would occur despite the warming influence of an El ni\361o and greenhouse gases. While the evidence for this trend doesn't necessarily show in Philadelphia's climate data, it certainly shows in areas of the southeastern US. The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009 with the increase in sunspots that was observed hailing the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Solar cycle 24 has truly ramped up, although many predict that this cycle's maximum will be lower than previous cycles during the past 30 years. With the recent increase in solar activity and solar wind, are the effects of the this lull in activity gone? Do the low solar flux effects accumulate, or are they subtle, and with the increase in recent activity, the effects become unnoticeable? With such a mild March, is the hypothesized cooling from last year's low solar irradiance proven false? These are questions that scientists who study solar effects of climate are trying to answer. I certainly don't have the answer. I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues. One thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. This suggests that either the"solar effect" is minimal or, more likely, the greenhouse signal is able to overshadow the the lowered solar effect. Recently, solar activity has gone into a lull again and solar flux is below the predicted value for cycle 24. It's a wait and see approach. We will see if the solar minimum continues to suppress the effects of greenhouse warming. Volcanic ash from the Iceland volcano is also contributing to cooler temps. The current cool temps are expected to linger into June. posted: May 23 2010 at 4:26 pm [/weather/may10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.