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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Wed, 10 Feb 2010
Winter Weather Update- Wed 11 AM
Latest GFS data still showing similar temps and QPF values as the NAM (0.90 inches water falling between 7 AM and 7PM)
The heaviest precipitation is supposed to occur before 1PM, so things gotta get going real soon if we're going to approach the amounts forecast by the models.
Temperatures at PHL airport have finally dropped to 32 and at NE PHL airport, it's 31 and at Wings Field, Blue Bell, it's still above freezing at 32.5.
The fact that so much precipitation this morning has fallen as sleet/freezing rain will significantly impact the snow totals. We may only get 5-7 more inches of snow before ending.
Getting the snow totals correct today is going to take as much luck as skill. And, as always will depend on where you're located. Assuming 5-7 more inches, I'm going to go with a total of 12-16 inches for PHL total. Whatever does fall will be heavy to shovel! Stay warm

posted: Feb 10 2010 at 11:11 am

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Wed 9:15 AM
Again, the changeover to sleet wasn't predicted by either the GFS or NAM. Temperatures at 800-900 mb height were 1 degree above freezing instead of the predicted 0 C. The NAM did well with the QPF values, but not the temperatures.
Latest NAM data still showing about 0.90 inches water left to fall before ending about 6PM. The NAM drops the temperatures during the morning so that things should change back to snow. If temps cool down as expected, we can expect another 10 inches of snow, ending about 6 PM
I'll update when the GFS model comes out about 10:45.

posted: Feb 10 2010 at 9:37 am

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Wed 8 AM
Temperatures at 5000 ft are warmer than predicted by any model. That's why we have freezing rain. Temps should fall again. But confidence in this forecast is currently not high.
I'll update when the GFS model comes out about 10:45.

posted: Feb 10 2010 at 8:29 am

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 10 Feb 2010 Winter Weather Update- Wed 11 AM Latest GFS data still showing similar temps and QPF values as the NAM (0.90 inches water falling between 7 AM and 7PM) The heaviest precipitation is supposed to occur before 1PM, so things gotta get going real soon if we're going to approach the amounts forecast by the models. Temperatures at PHL airport have finally dropped to 32 and at NE PHL airport, it's 31 and at Wings Field, Blue Bell, it's still above freezing at 32.5. The fact that so much precipitation this morning has fallen as sleet/freezing rain will significantly impact the snow totals. We may only get 5-7 more inches of snow before ending. Getting the snow totals correct today is going to take as much luck as skill. And, as always will depend on where you're located. Assuming 5-7 more inches, I'm going to go with a total of 12-16 inches for PHL total. Whatever does fall will be heavy to shovel! Stay warm posted: Feb 10 2010 at 11:11 am [/weather/feb10] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Wed 9:15 AM Again, the changeover to sleet wasn't predicted by either the GFS or NAM. Temperatures at 800-900 mb height were 1 degree above freezing instead of the predicted 0 C. The NAM did well with the QPF values, but not the temperatures. Latest NAM data still showing about 0.90 inches water left to fall before ending about 6PM. The NAM drops the temperatures during the morning so that things should change back to snow. If temps cool down as expected, we can expect another 10 inches of snow, ending about 6 PM I'll update when the GFS model comes out about 10:45. posted: Feb 10 2010 at 9:37 am [/weather/feb10] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Wed 8 AM Temperatures at 5000 ft are warmer than predicted by any model. That's why we have freezing rain. Temps should fall again. But confidence in this forecast is currently not high. I'll update when the GFS model comes out about 10:45. posted: Feb 10 2010 at 8:29 am [/weather/feb10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.