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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 06 Feb 2010
Philly Winter Weather Forecast- Sat PM
The snow is over in most areas. Philadelphia Airport recorded 28.5 inches of snow, but most areas had only around 20.
Things calm down for Sunday, but it will be cold!
Incredibly, the GFS model is predicting another big storm for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Current estimates, based on GFS QPF values, is over a foot! Stay tuned.
Sun 2/7: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High 29.

Solar Climate Discussion (Updated 2/6): This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a prolonged lull in solar activity. The sun is beginning to come out of a solar minimum, and there has finally been the long expected increase in solar activity signaling the real beginning of Solar Cycle 24. There are several sunspot areas, but the solar flux still hasn't taken off. It's still early in the cycle. Total Solar Irradiance continues to be about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, in April 2000.
As of early February, it looks like the solar cycle is providing the predicted colder than normal temperatures and the El Nino is providing the potent moisture rich southern jet stream. Continue to expect colder than normal temperatures into the spring.

posted: Feb 06 2010 at 6:05 pm

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Sat 10:45AM
The latest GFS data now available- very similar to the NAM model with 0.42 inches water falling over the 12 hours (from 7AM to 7PM). Several more inches of snow likely before ending about 5-6PM. As mentioned earlier, the band of maximum moisture convergence is right over Philadelphia and continues to tip and rotate with PHL as the axis of rotation. We're in the heaviest snow band and this may enhance snow totals beyond what the resolution of the models have been predicting.

With the current amounts and the banding that's occuring over Philadelphia, I'm increasing total snow totals in Philadelphia and immediate suburbs from to 20-30 inches. (Last night I was predicting 15-22 inches)
Updates if needed.
(Like these forecasts? Please click on an ad at the top of the web page to increase my ratings. Thanks!)

posted: Feb 06 2010 at 10:43 am

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Sat 9AM
This morning's NAM model data just came off the wire: And addition 0.41 inches water expected to fall in the time frame 7AM this morning to 7 PM this evening. This translates into an additional 6 inches on top of what we already have.
I've been looking at the radar last night and this morning. Interestingly, the bands of maximum snow seem to have set up in an west-east orientation over Philadelphia instead of south of Philadelphia. These bands represent the areas of maximum moisture convergence and maximum lift. So it will be interesting to see where the maximum snow amounts will be.
Snow is expected to taper this afternoon. The GFS LAMPS model has some snow, albeit light, at least through 5 PM. The experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model shows some snow until about 5-6PM as well for Philadelphia.
With the current amounts and the banding that's occuring over Philadelphia, I'm increasing total snow totals in Philadelphia and immediate suburbs from to 20-28 inches. (Last night I was predicting 15-22 inches)
Updates if needed.
(Like these forecasts? Please click on an ad at the top of the web page to increase my ratings. Thanks!)

posted: Feb 06 2010 at 9:15 am

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 06 Feb 2010 Philly Winter Weather Forecast- Sat PM The snow is over in most areas. Philadelphia Airport recorded 28.5 inches of snow, but most areas had only around 20. Things calm down for Sunday, but it will be cold! Incredibly, the GFS model is predicting another big storm for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Current estimates, based on GFS QPF values, is over a foot! Stay tuned. Sun 2/7: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High 29. Solar Climate Discussion (Updated 2/6): This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a prolonged lull in solar activity. The sun is beginning to come out of a solar minimum, and there has finally been the long expected increase in solar activity signaling the real beginning of Solar Cycle 24. There are several sunspot areas, but the solar flux still hasn't taken off. It's still early in the cycle. Total Solar Irradiance continues to be about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, in April 2000. As of early February, it looks like the solar cycle is providing the predicted colder than normal temperatures and the El Nino is providing the potent moisture rich southern jet stream. Continue to expect colder than normal temperatures into the spring. posted: Feb 06 2010 at 6:05 pm [/weather/feb10] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Sat 10:45AM The latest GFS data now available- very similar to the NAM model with 0.42 inches water falling over the 12 hours (from 7AM to 7PM). Several more inches of snow likely before ending about 5-6PM. As mentioned earlier, the band of maximum moisture convergence is right over Philadelphia and continues to tip and rotate with PHL as the axis of rotation. We're in the heaviest snow band and this may enhance snow totals beyond what the resolution of the models have been predicting. With the current amounts and the banding that's occuring over Philadelphia, I'm increasing total snow totals in Philadelphia and immediate suburbs from to 20-30 inches. (Last night I was predicting 15-22 inches) Updates if needed. (Like these forecasts? Please click on an ad at the top of the web page to increase my ratings. Thanks!) posted: Feb 06 2010 at 10:43 am [/weather/feb10] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Sat 9AM This morning's NAM model data just came off the wire: And addition 0.41 inches water expected to fall in the time frame 7AM this morning to 7 PM this evening. This translates into an additional 6 inches on top of what we already have. I've been looking at the radar last night and this morning. Interestingly, the bands of maximum snow seem to have set up in an west-east orientation over Philadelphia instead of south of Philadelphia. These bands represent the areas of maximum moisture convergence and maximum lift. So it will be interesting to see where the maximum snow amounts will be. Snow is expected to taper this afternoon. The GFS LAMPS model has some snow, albeit light, at least through 5 PM. The experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model shows some snow until about 5-6PM as well for Philadelphia. With the current amounts and the banding that's occuring over Philadelphia, I'm increasing total snow totals in Philadelphia and immediate suburbs from to 20-28 inches. (Last night I was predicting 15-22 inches) Updates if needed. (Like these forecasts? Please click on an ad at the top of the web page to increase my ratings. Thanks!) posted: Feb 06 2010 at 9:15 am [/weather/feb10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.