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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 19 Dec 2009
Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 6:45 PM
This afternoon's NAM and GFS model output continues to show at least 4-5 additional inches of snow falling for Philadelphia after 7 PM tonight. Less north and west. Most of the snow will be over after midnight.
Areas in Camden, Gloucester, Salem and Cape May counties and continued to get the highest snow rates and the totals there may easily exceed 25 inches.
The mostly likely amount is still 18 inches in Philadelphia and I'm moving back to my range earlier today of 14-25 inches.

posted: Dec 19 2009 at 6:49 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 1:30 PM
Snow amounts and rates vary quite a bit across our area. The cut off for the highest amounts appears to be near Center City; areas in much of northern Montgomery county and much of Bucks county have been receiving much lighter amounts. Even in Wyndmoor/Chestnut Hill, the snows haven't been as heavy as areas from Center City and south and east. In fact, at this rate, I won't have 18 inches at my home.
It appears that the heaviest snows in our area will be Delaware county, Southern Philadelphia County and areas just across the river in Camden, Gloucester, Salem and Cape May Counties. This is based on the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model output.

The mostly likely amount is still 18 inches with ranges of 14-20 inches. The heaviest snow will mostly likely fall during the late afternoon.

posted: Dec 19 2009 at 1:42 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 11 AM
The latest GFS data from this morning's model run just became available.
GFS Total QPF values near 1.40 inches water.
Assuming a 15:1 ratio (based on cold temps) , I'm staying my current estimate of 18 inches by Sunday morning. I'm lowering the range to 14-20 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west.
Significant banding of snow is occurring based on radar (and anticipated by models). Areas of south Philadephia and Delaware county are getting much more snow than areas around Chestnut Hill and NE Philadelphia.

posted: Dec 19 2009 at 11:04 am

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 9:30 AM
The latest NAM data from this morning's model run just became available.
NAM Total QPF values near 1.80 inches water. Assuming a 15:1 ratio (based on cold temps) , I'm staying my current estimate of 18 inches by Sunday morning, with a range of 14-25 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west.
The new GFS model data will be available about 10:40 AM. Will update at that time.

posted: Dec 19 2009 at 9:24 am

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 9 AM
The 1 AM run of the GFS and NAM models continue with high QPF values; GFS has about 2 inches water equivalent and NAM has well over 2 inches water equivalent.
Sounds like Accuweather and the NWS just caught up to my forecast :-)
I'm staying my current estimate of 18 inches by Sunday morning, with a range of 14-25 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west. Frankly, the upper range is certainly a possibility and I'm being conservative with my upper limit of 25 inches. With a high snow to water ratio and QPF values closer to the NAM model, we could exceed 30 inches.

posted: Dec 19 2009 at 9:06 am

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 19 Dec 2009 Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 6:45 PM This afternoon's NAM and GFS model output continues to show at least 4-5 additional inches of snow falling for Philadelphia after 7 PM tonight. Less north and west. Most of the snow will be over after midnight. Areas in Camden, Gloucester, Salem and Cape May counties and continued to get the highest snow rates and the totals there may easily exceed 25 inches. The mostly likely amount is still 18 inches in Philadelphia and I'm moving back to my range earlier today of 14-25 inches. posted: Dec 19 2009 at 6:49 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 1:30 PM Snow amounts and rates vary quite a bit across our area. The cut off for the highest amounts appears to be near Center City; areas in much of northern Montgomery county and much of Bucks county have been receiving much lighter amounts. Even in Wyndmoor/Chestnut Hill, the snows haven't been as heavy as areas from Center City and south and east. In fact, at this rate, I won't have 18 inches at my home. It appears that the heaviest snows in our area will be Delaware county, Southern Philadelphia County and areas just across the river in Camden, Gloucester, Salem and Cape May Counties. This is based on the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model output. The mostly likely amount is still 18 inches with ranges of 14-20 inches. The heaviest snow will mostly likely fall during the late afternoon. posted: Dec 19 2009 at 1:42 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 11 AM The latest GFS data from this morning's model run just became available. GFS Total QPF values near 1.40 inches water. Assuming a 15:1 ratio (based on cold temps) , I'm staying my current estimate of 18 inches by Sunday morning. I'm lowering the range to 14-20 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west. Significant banding of snow is occurring based on radar (and anticipated by models). Areas of south Philadephia and Delaware county are getting much more snow than areas around Chestnut Hill and NE Philadelphia. posted: Dec 19 2009 at 11:04 am [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 9:30 AM The latest NAM data from this morning's model run just became available. NAM Total QPF values near 1.80 inches water. Assuming a 15:1 ratio (based on cold temps) , I'm staying my current estimate of 18 inches by Sunday morning, with a range of 14-25 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west. The new GFS model data will be available about 10:40 AM. Will update at that time. posted: Dec 19 2009 at 9:24 am [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Storm Update- Sat 9 AM The 1 AM run of the GFS and NAM models continue with high QPF values; GFS has about 2 inches water equivalent and NAM has well over 2 inches water equivalent. Sounds like Accuweather and the NWS just caught up to my forecast :-) I'm staying my current estimate of 18 inches by Sunday morning, with a range of 14-25 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west. Frankly, the upper range is certainly a possibility and I'm being conservative with my upper limit of 25 inches. With a high snow to water ratio and QPF values closer to the NAM model, we could exceed 30 inches. posted: Dec 19 2009 at 9:06 am [/weather/dec09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.