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Philly Winter Storm Update- Fri 10:45 PM
Latest GFS model data available. QPF values are now similar to the NAM and are close to 2 inches water equivalent.
My current estimate is 18 inches, with a range of 14-25 inches of snow for Philadelphia and imediate suburbs, less further northwest and west.
posted: Dec 18 2009 at 10:51 pm
[/weather/dec09] permanent link
Philly Winter Storm Update- Fri 9:30 PM
Latest NAM model data available. QPF values are still close to 2 inches water equivalent. Frankly, I'm being conservative when i say it's very possible to have 12-24 inches of snow by Sunday morning.
My current estimate is 18 inches, with a range of 12-24 inches of snow for Philadelphia and imediate suburbs, less further northwest and west.
Next GFS data about 10:45 PM. I'll update again.
posted: Dec 18 2009 at 9:30 pm
[/weather/dec09] permanent link
Philly Winter Storm Update- Fri 4 PM
Latest models are more consistent about amounts, although the GFS is somewhat less active than the NAM. The GFS qpf values are about 1 inch or water or 10-12 inches of snow. The NAM continues to crank out over 2 inches water equivalent or, over 2 feet of snow.
My current estimate is 16 inches, with a range of 10-20 inches of snow for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs, less further northwest and west.
Next NAM model runs become available at 9:40 PM and GFS data about 10:55 PM. I'll undate again later.
posted: Dec 18 2009 at 3:58 pm
[/weather/dec09] permanent link
Philly Winter Snow Update- Fri AM 5:50
Exact snow amounts for the upcoming storm are impossible to call at this time. The model range has been anywhere from 3-5 inches to 2 feet, with each model being inconsistent with their own successive model runs. Last night's GFS went from 3-6 inches to possibly more than 12 inches (in Philly). Last night's NAM went from 2 feet of snow to 4-5 inches with the later model run.
Here's what we know: it will be all snow. It will start before daybreak Saturday and last into the evening. Amounts are likely to be significant. Areas to the south and east will have more snow than far north and west. Updates later today.
posted: Dec 18 2009 at 5:56 am
[/weather/dec09] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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