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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Thu, 17 Dec 2009
Snow Update
The latest GFS model has much less precipitation than the NAM model. The GFS model has as much as 6 inches of snow, compared to the NAM model which has over 2 feet of snow. Final amounts of snow will likely be an average of the two.

posted: Dec 17 2009 at 11:06 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Snow Update- Thurs 10 PM
Looking at the latest NAM FOUS data, over 2 inches water equivalent of snow will fall Saturday through Saturday night. This is turning into the possibility of a major snow storm for Philadelphia. At the temps, this translates into over 24 inches. This is impressive. You heard it here first. Way too early to get hyped, but I'd make sure your snow blower works.

posted: Dec 17 2009 at 9:59 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Snow Update- Thurs 9:50 PM
Latest NAM has heavy snow for Saturday through Sat night. Approximately 1 foot of snow possible, according to NAM. GFS model data available later.

posted: Dec 17 2009 at 9:52 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Outlook- Thur PM
The GFS, NAM and NOGAPS models are similar this evening, although there has been a bit of flip-flop around the amount of snow falling and the timing.
The latest models have the snow starting much earlier, now on Saturday before daybreak. While the morning GFS had backed off from the 3-5 inches of snow, the 1 PM run of the GFS again shows 2-5 inches of snow for Philadelphia, with LESS north and west of the city. The NAM has 1-3 inches during the same time frame. Areas to our south and east, in southern NJ and DE may have several inches more.
Right now, Philadelphia is right on the northern border of the expected precipitation shield. Usually the models are fairly good at determining the northern extent, but this storm track and intensification has moved north and west considerably since earlier in the week, (where it was expected to entirely miss us).
Stay tuned. This is depicted by the GFS as a fairly deep low, and any further movement north and west could raise snow totals.
Sat 12/19: Snow beginning before daybreak, light through the day with occasional pauses. Current estimate is 3-5 inches by late Saturday night for the area for PHL airport gridpoint, less north and west.
Sun 12/20 (tentative) Slow clearing, some sun by afternoon, windy and cold. High 34.

Since this past summer (see post), I've postulated that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity. Total solar irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.

posted: Dec 17 2009 at 7:47 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Outlook- Thur AM
Last night' NAM and NOGAPS is looking a bit more like the GFS for Saturday night's snow, although the GFS has heavier snow (5 inches or more) due to greater intensification of the low along the NJ coast and a slightly closer track. Areas in NJ may have heavier amounts than in PHL and northern and western PHL suburbs may have just a dusting or much less snow. Details still developing.
Sat 12/19: Becoming cloudy by afternoon. Cold. High 35. Snow develops late afternoon into the evening with amounts possible of 5 + inches.
Sun 12/20 (tentative) Slow clearing, some sun by afternoon, windy and cold. High 34.

Since this past summer (see post), I've postulated that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity. Total solar irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.

posted: Dec 17 2009 at 6:34 am

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Thu, 17 Dec 2009 Snow Update The latest GFS model has much less precipitation than the NAM model. The GFS model has as much as 6 inches of snow, compared to the NAM model which has over 2 feet of snow. Final amounts of snow will likely be an average of the two. posted: Dec 17 2009 at 11:06 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Snow Update- Thurs 10 PM Looking at the latest NAM FOUS data, over 2 inches water equivalent of snow will fall Saturday through Saturday night. This is turning into the possibility of a major snow storm for Philadelphia. At the temps, this translates into over 24 inches. This is impressive. You heard it here first. Way too early to get hyped, but I'd make sure your snow blower works. posted: Dec 17 2009 at 9:59 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Snow Update- Thurs 9:50 PM Latest NAM has heavy snow for Saturday through Sat night. Approximately 1 foot of snow possible, according to NAM. GFS model data available later. posted: Dec 17 2009 at 9:52 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Outlook- Thur PM The GFS, NAM and NOGAPS models are similar this evening, although there has been a bit of flip-flop around the amount of snow falling and the timing. The latest models have the snow starting much earlier, now on Saturday before daybreak. While the morning GFS had backed off from the 3-5 inches of snow, the 1 PM run of the GFS again shows 2-5 inches of snow for Philadelphia, with LESS north and west of the city. The NAM has 1-3 inches during the same time frame. Areas to our south and east, in southern NJ and DE may have several inches more. Right now, Philadelphia is right on the northern border of the expected precipitation shield. Usually the models are fairly good at determining the northern extent, but this storm track and intensification has moved north and west considerably since earlier in the week, (where it was expected to entirely miss us). Stay tuned. This is depicted by the GFS as a fairly deep low, and any further movement north and west could raise snow totals. Sat 12/19: Snow beginning before daybreak, light through the day with occasional pauses. Current estimate is 3-5 inches by late Saturday night for the area for PHL airport gridpoint, less north and west. Sun 12/20 (tentative) Slow clearing, some sun by afternoon, windy and cold. High 34. Since this past summer (see post), I've postulated that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity. Total solar irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here. posted: Dec 17 2009 at 7:47 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Outlook- Thur AM Last night' NAM and NOGAPS is looking a bit more like the GFS for Saturday night's snow, although the GFS has heavier snow (5 inches or more) due to greater intensification of the low along the NJ coast and a slightly closer track. Areas in NJ may have heavier amounts than in PHL and northern and western PHL suburbs may have just a dusting or much less snow. Details still developing. Sat 12/19: Becoming cloudy by afternoon. Cold. High 35. Snow develops late afternoon into the evening with amounts possible of 5 + inches. Sun 12/20 (tentative) Slow clearing, some sun by afternoon, windy and cold. High 34. Since this past summer (see post), I've postulated that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity. Total solar irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here. posted: Dec 17 2009 at 6:34 am [/weather/dec09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.