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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 05 Dec 2009
Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat eve
The 1 PM NAM model reverted back to a colder scenario, which can be appreciated by looking out of the window. Temps are still above freezing, but the precipitation rate is high, so dynamic cooling is allowing accumulation of snow. Temps are 34 degrees here and are not expected to fall to freezing until after 2AM.
A heavier band of snow is poised to move through in the next hour. Based on the the latest NAM and current conditions, I'll have to return to my earlier forecast for 2-3 inches snow. It looks like Sunday will be colder than previously thought.
This was an interesting meteorological event for several reasons-- it's one of the few times in recent memory that the NAM model did consistently better than the GFS model. It also suggests that the trend for a record cold and maybe snowy winter may hold. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Sun 12/6 Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High 37.

posted: Dec 05 2009 at 6:58 pm

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat AM
Last night's GFS and NAM model continue the trend of warmer surface temps, with temperatures slightly above freezing (in Philadelphia) for most of the time that precipitation will be falling. (Doesn't sink to below 32 until morning hours.)
Except for some dynamic cooling during the peak precip time of late afternoon, the warm ground temps will reduce chances of accumulating snow in PHL and immediate surrounding suburbs.
The latest GFS LAMPS forecast has the changeover to snow in the upper atmosphere occurring now about 8 PM in Philadelphia, not the afternoon. The NAM FOUS data has the upper atmosphere cold enough to support snow about 4-6 PM.
So expect little more than a coating at most when all is said and done.
I'll update later this morning is things change.

posted: Dec 05 2009 at 8:58 am

[/weather/dec09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 05 Dec 2009 Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat eve The 1 PM NAM model reverted back to a colder scenario, which can be appreciated by looking out of the window. Temps are still above freezing, but the precipitation rate is high, so dynamic cooling is allowing accumulation of snow. Temps are 34 degrees here and are not expected to fall to freezing until after 2AM. A heavier band of snow is poised to move through in the next hour. Based on the the latest NAM and current conditions, I'll have to return to my earlier forecast for 2-3 inches snow. It looks like Sunday will be colder than previously thought. This was an interesting meteorological event for several reasons-- it's one of the few times in recent memory that the NAM model did consistently better than the GFS model. It also suggests that the trend for a record cold and maybe snowy winter may hold. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here. Sun 12/6 Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High 37. posted: Dec 05 2009 at 6:58 pm [/weather/dec09] permanent link Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat AM Last night's GFS and NAM model continue the trend of warmer surface temps, with temperatures slightly above freezing (in Philadelphia) for most of the time that precipitation will be falling. (Doesn't sink to below 32 until morning hours.) Except for some dynamic cooling during the peak precip time of late afternoon, the warm ground temps will reduce chances of accumulating snow in PHL and immediate surrounding suburbs. The latest GFS LAMPS forecast has the changeover to snow in the upper atmosphere occurring now about 8 PM in Philadelphia, not the afternoon. The NAM FOUS data has the upper atmosphere cold enough to support snow about 4-6 PM. So expect little more than a coating at most when all is said and done. I'll update later this morning is things change. posted: Dec 05 2009 at 8:58 am [/weather/dec09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.