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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 31 Oct 2009
Phillies Weather Update
Hoping the game goes on tonight. Go Phillies!
That said, I've mentioned that the weather scenario is a low confidence forecast. The GFS has done a good job at predicting the showers early and the rain at this time. The latest GFS (2 PM run) continues with rain, even a bit heavier after midnight, as low pressure develops in West Virginia along the stalling front.
It's possible that we might get a break in the rain action after 8 PM with the frontal passage, but this front is referred to meteorologically as an "anafront" where rain re-develops behind the frontal passage due to cyclogenesis. Again, specifics of this frontal passage are gonna be tough, but the current radar trends suggest that the game may start with the rain ending, but the rain might restart, even heavier later this evening causing the game to be suspended. If that occurs it will be a bummer.

posted: Oct 31 2009 at 7:57 pm

[/weather/oct09] permanent link

Philadelphia Week Weather Update- Sat AM
As mentioned earlier this week, confidence in the forecast for the weekend is lower than usual, since it involves a slowing cold front and wave development along the front. The models aren't always very good at capturing the position of the stalled front or the position of the expected low development.
That said, the GFS has been consistent in its most recent runs. (The NAM model from last night, as it often does, becomes an outlier with the precipitation trends. I should stop posting it :-) )
The GFS has a bit more rain showers for Saturday evening and less development of a low pressure system for Sunday. As a result, Saturday may be a bit wetter than previously expected and Sunday will be sunny.
Right now, a warm front type situation is bringing some drizzle and fog. (I missed this in the forecast yesterday.) This should lift north of us giving us some briefly bright skies early afternoon, before the clouds associated with the cold front move in.
Sat 10/31: Cloudy, very breezy and mild. Some drizzle in the morning, but some bright spots early afternoon, then cloudy again with showers developing during the later afternoon lasting into the evening. The current GFS has light rain for the Phillies game tonight. High 73.
Sun 11/1: Early clouds break for mostly sunny skies. High 62
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.

posted: Oct 31 2009 at 9:19 am

[/weather/oct09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 31 Oct 2009 Phillies Weather Update Hoping the game goes on tonight. Go Phillies! That said, I've mentioned that the weather scenario is a low confidence forecast. The GFS has done a good job at predicting the showers early and the rain at this time. The latest GFS (2 PM run) continues with rain, even a bit heavier after midnight, as low pressure develops in West Virginia along the stalling front. It's possible that we might get a break in the rain action after 8 PM with the frontal passage, but this front is referred to meteorologically as an "anafront" where rain re-develops behind the frontal passage due to cyclogenesis. Again, specifics of this frontal passage are gonna be tough, but the current radar trends suggest that the game may start with the rain ending, but the rain might restart, even heavier later this evening causing the game to be suspended. If that occurs it will be a bummer. posted: Oct 31 2009 at 7:57 pm [/weather/oct09] permanent link Philadelphia Week Weather Update- Sat AM As mentioned earlier this week, confidence in the forecast for the weekend is lower than usual, since it involves a slowing cold front and wave development along the front. The models aren't always very good at capturing the position of the stalled front or the position of the expected low development. That said, the GFS has been consistent in its most recent runs. (The NAM model from last night, as it often does, becomes an outlier with the precipitation trends. I should stop posting it :-) ) The GFS has a bit more rain showers for Saturday evening and less development of a low pressure system for Sunday. As a result, Saturday may be a bit wetter than previously expected and Sunday will be sunny. Right now, a warm front type situation is bringing some drizzle and fog. (I missed this in the forecast yesterday.) This should lift north of us giving us some briefly bright skies early afternoon, before the clouds associated with the cold front move in. Sat 10/31: Cloudy, very breezy and mild. Some drizzle in the morning, but some bright spots early afternoon, then cloudy again with showers developing during the later afternoon lasting into the evening. The current GFS has light rain for the Phillies game tonight. High 73. Sun 11/1: Early clouds break for mostly sunny skies. High 62 Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here. Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations. posted: Oct 31 2009 at 9:19 am [/weather/oct09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.