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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 17 Oct 2009
Forecast Update
The slight break in the action this afternoon was picked up by the NAM model. If the NAM is correct, very heavy rain is expected again this evening and night time into Sunday morning, then tapers. Some bright patches possible Sunday afternoon, just like today.

posted: Oct 17 2009 at 2:36 pm

[/weather/oct09] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
Last night's GFS accurately captured the heavy rain that has covered our area today. (The NAM had moved it to tonight, but that seems to be wrong.) Going with the GFS, heavy rain for today tapers tonight into Sunday. Most of the rain should be over by Sunday afternoon, although a light sprinkle is possible.
I want to clarify the erroneous reference to a Nor'easter that the newsmedia is talking about. Today's weather strictly speaking, is NOT due to an intense surface low that is moving up the coast. There is no deep low off the coastline, the usual reference to a Nor'easter.
There is a weak low, far off the coast. Instead, today's weather is actually due to an area of low level moisture convergence situated over us interacting with a deep upper trough that is stuck just to our west. What this means is that the surface winds are bringing in moisture due east due to surface flow while the deep upper trough bringing in southwesterly moist air aloft- this is causing the moist air to rise and condense into rain. This area of easterly flow rising up over an area dominated by an upper trough is referred to as an "inverted coastal front". This area will eventually cause a surface low to form tonight into Sunday and perhaps Cape Cod will have a Nor'easter tomorrow. Our weather isn't due to one.
I don't know why the news/weather insists on misinformation.
Sat 10/17: Cloudy with rain, moderately heavy at times. Breezy and cold. High 44.
Sun 10/18:Cloudy with showers and damp in the morning, showers end early afternoon. Possible bright spots in the afternoon. Breezy, cold. High 46
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.

posted: Oct 17 2009 at 12:11 pm

[/weather/oct09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 17 Oct 2009 Forecast Update The slight break in the action this afternoon was picked up by the NAM model. If the NAM is correct, very heavy rain is expected again this evening and night time into Sunday morning, then tapers. Some bright patches possible Sunday afternoon, just like today. posted: Oct 17 2009 at 2:36 pm [/weather/oct09] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Last night's GFS accurately captured the heavy rain that has covered our area today. (The NAM had moved it to tonight, but that seems to be wrong.) Going with the GFS, heavy rain for today tapers tonight into Sunday. Most of the rain should be over by Sunday afternoon, although a light sprinkle is possible. I want to clarify the erroneous reference to a Nor'easter that the newsmedia is talking about. Today's weather strictly speaking, is NOT due to an intense surface low that is moving up the coast. There is no deep low off the coastline, the usual reference to a Nor'easter. There is a weak low, far off the coast. Instead, today's weather is actually due to an area of low level moisture convergence situated over us interacting with a deep upper trough that is stuck just to our west. What this means is that the surface winds are bringing in moisture due east due to surface flow while the deep upper trough bringing in southwesterly moist air aloft- this is causing the moist air to rise and condense into rain. This area of easterly flow rising up over an area dominated by an upper trough is referred to as an "inverted coastal front". This area will eventually cause a surface low to form tonight into Sunday and perhaps Cape Cod will have a Nor'easter tomorrow. Our weather isn't due to one. I don't know why the news/weather insists on misinformation. Sat 10/17: Cloudy with rain, moderately heavy at times. Breezy and cold. High 44. Sun 10/18:Cloudy with showers and damp in the morning, showers end early afternoon. Possible bright spots in the afternoon. Breezy, cold. High 46 Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here. Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations. posted: Oct 17 2009 at 12:11 pm [/weather/oct09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.