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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Wed, 14 Oct 2009
Philadelphia Winter Climate Outlook
I heard on KYW today that Accuweather is predicting a colder than normal winter and a snowier winter.
Good for them! I've been predicting a record cold winter for several months now! It seems that the El Nino will provide an active, moist subtropical flow and more moisture, based on current observations.
But the big item, apparently controversial, is the explanation for the expected cold weather. I see the reason for the expected cold weather is the extended minimum in the sunspot cycle and it's associated decrease in total solar irradiance for the past two years. Unfortunately, some of the nuts that totally refute the anthrogenic greenhouse effect seize on this solar influence as the only reason we've had global warming during the past few decades. (the sun has had unusually active sunspot cycles over the past 30 years.) So even the most reasonable observers of climate trend are reluctant to suggest the solar cycle can influence our climate so significantly.
I believe the greenhouse effect is real and man's increase in greenhouse gases is an active factor in our climate change. However, I also believe that low activity solar cycle in the short run may likely counteract greenhouse global warming, certainly for this winter.
As I've been saying on this blog since early August, expect a colder than normal fall and winter. Indeed, with solar minimum showing reluctance to fade, we may have record cold temperatures this winter.. Add to this the recent observed increase in the subtropical jet moisture, and a doozy of a winter is likely. Get that snowblower ready!

posted: Oct 14 2009 at 6:06 pm

[/weather/oct09] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
The specifics of the forecast for the weekend remains uncertain. The basic scenario involves the development of a sharp upper air trough in the Great Lakes area, associated the passage of a cold front on Friday. This anomalously sharp trough will undergo a negative tilt, causing the development of a surface low near the coast and a moist, cold easterly flow off the ocean.
Rain is likely on Saturday into early Sunday, but it's not clear whether the rain will be well-organized or continuous. Right now, Saturday likely will have the most intermittent light rain, with heavier rain expected for Sunday as the sharp upper trough closes off into a closed low.
The predicted jet configuration is quite anomalous for October, so confidence is low with current forecast. That said, the models are predicted an extended period of rainy cool weather from Thurs through Monday.

Sat 10/17: Tentative: Cloudy with intermittent showers and light drizzle. Breezy and cool. High 53.
Sun 10/18: Tentative: Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy. Breezy and cool. High 53.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.

posted: Oct 14 2009 at 8:02 am

[/weather/oct09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 14 Oct 2009 Philadelphia Winter Climate Outlook I heard on KYW today that Accuweather is predicting a colder than normal winter and a snowier winter. Good for them! I've been predicting a record cold winter for several months now! It seems that the El Nino will provide an active, moist subtropical flow and more moisture, based on current observations. But the big item, apparently controversial, is the explanation for the expected cold weather. I see the reason for the expected cold weather is the extended minimum in the sunspot cycle and it's associated decrease in total solar irradiance for the past two years. Unfortunately, some of the nuts that totally refute the anthrogenic greenhouse effect seize on this solar influence as the only reason we've had global warming during the past few decades. (the sun has had unusually active sunspot cycles over the past 30 years.) So even the most reasonable observers of climate trend are reluctant to suggest the solar cycle can influence our climate so significantly. I believe the greenhouse effect is real and man's increase in greenhouse gases is an active factor in our climate change. However, I also believe that low activity solar cycle in the short run may likely counteract greenhouse global warming, certainly for this winter. As I've been saying on this blog since early August, expect a colder than normal fall and winter. Indeed, with solar minimum showing reluctance to fade, we may have record cold temperatures this winter.. Add to this the recent observed increase in the subtropical jet moisture, and a doozy of a winter is likely. Get that snowblower ready! posted: Oct 14 2009 at 6:06 pm [/weather/oct09] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM The specifics of the forecast for the weekend remains uncertain. The basic scenario involves the development of a sharp upper air trough in the Great Lakes area, associated the passage of a cold front on Friday. This anomalously sharp trough will undergo a negative tilt, causing the development of a surface low near the coast and a moist, cold easterly flow off the ocean. Rain is likely on Saturday into early Sunday, but it's not clear whether the rain will be well-organized or continuous. Right now, Saturday likely will have the most intermittent light rain, with heavier rain expected for Sunday as the sharp upper trough closes off into a closed low. The predicted jet configuration is quite anomalous for October, so confidence is low with current forecast. That said, the models are predicted an extended period of rainy cool weather from Thurs through Monday. Sat 10/17: Tentative: Cloudy with intermittent showers and light drizzle. Breezy and cool. High 53. Sun 10/18: Tentative: Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy. Breezy and cool. High 53. Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here. Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations. posted: Oct 14 2009 at 8:02 am [/weather/oct09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.