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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 28 Feb 2009
Philadelphia Winter Weather- Sat 10 PM Update
Latest NAM model has snow starting late afternoon Sunday and continuing into Monday morning. 10-12 inches or more. Expect more changes. Stay tuned.

posted: Feb 28 2009 at 9:45 pm

[/weather/feb09] permanent link

Philadelphia Weather Forecast- Sat 4PM Update
The latest NAM model run from 1PM shows as much as 10 inches of snow by Monday morning. Again, this particular jet configuration is difficult to pin down. See discussion below.
From earlier today:
11 AM Update: Latest NAM has precip to our east. The more accurate latest GFS has a significant snowstorm for Sunday night into Monday (6-9 inches in PHL) Still too many uncertainties with this storm.
The cold front moved through last night and the frontal boundary has stalled to our south as expected. Here's where things become uncertain--

The predicted jet stream configuration continues to change from model run to model run. Last night's GFS had significant precipitation for us Sunday night. The 1 AM run of the GFS moved the precipitation to the east and we're on the fringe. Things keep changing significantly
While I enjoy looking at the weather models, this is one of those times where I think accurate prediction is outside the realm of possibility. This scenario could easily result in a "black swan" (see the book by Taleb). So again we could get anything from a major snow storm to a sleet/ice storm to a mere dusting. Sometimes, the best forecast is knowing the situation is one that we can't know for sure. Or, too many known unknowns and too many unknown unknowns. Stay tuned.
Sat 2/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. (The GFS has more clouds today than the NAM) Light sleet/freezing rain or snow possible before daybreak on Sunday. High near 35.
Sun 3/1: Cloudy. Light sleet/freezing rain or sleet possible. Snow, starting late afternoon or early evening and at night. As much as 10" possible by Mon morning. High 34. High uncertainty.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy

posted: Feb 28 2009 at 4:06 pm

[/weather/feb09] permanent link

Philadelphia Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update 11AM
Update: Latest NAM has precip to our east. The more accurate latest GFS has a significant snowstorm for Sunday night into Monday (6-9 inches in PHL) Still too many uncertainties with this storm.
From earlier today:
The cold front moved through last night and the frontal boundary has stalled to our south as expected. Here's where things become uncertain--

The predicted jet stream configuration continues to change from model run to model run. Last night's GFS had significant precipitation for us Sunday night. The 1 AM run of the GFS moved the precipitation to the east and we're on the fringe. Things keep changing significantly
While I enjoy looking at the weather models, this is one of those times where I think accurate prediction is outside the realm of possibility. This scenario could easily result in a "black swan" (see the book by Taleb). So again we could get anything from a major snow storm to a sleet/ice storm to a mere dusting. Sometimes, the best forecast is knowing the situation is one that we can't know for sure. Or, too many known unknowns and too many unknown unknowns. Stay tuned.
Sat 2/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. (The GFS has more clouds today than the NAM) Light sleet/freezing rain or snow possible before daybreak on Sunday. High near 35.
Sun 3/1: Cloudy. Light sleet/freezing rain or snow. Possibly becoming heavier later in the afternoon and at night. High 34. High uncertainty.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy

posted: Feb 28 2009 at 11:02 am

[/weather/feb09] permanent link

Philadelphia Weather Forecast- Sat AM
The cold front moved through last night and the frontal boundary has stalled to our south as expected. Here's where things become uncertain--

The predicted jet stream configuration continues to change from model run to model run. Last night's GFS had significant precipitation for us Sunday night. The 1 AM run of the GFS moved the precipitation to the east and we're on the fringe. Things keep changing significantly
While I enjoy looking at the weather models, this is one of those times where I think accurate prediction is outside the realm of possibility. This scenario could easily result in a "black swan" (see the book by Taleb). So again we could get anything from a major snow storm to a sleet/ice storm to a mere dusting. Sometimes, the best forecast is knowing the situation is one that we can't know for sure. Or, too many known unknowns and too many unknown unknowns. Stay tuned.
Sat 2/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. (The GFS has more clouds today than the NAM) Light sleet/freezing rain or snow possible before daybreak on Sunday. High near 35.
Sun 3/1: Cloudy. Light sleet/freezing rain or snow. Possibly becoming heavier later in the afternoon and at night. High 34. High uncertainty.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy

posted: Feb 28 2009 at 8:41 am

[/weather/feb09] permanent link

Philadelphia Winter Weather- Sat AM Update
Latest GFS model now has it colder with a major snowfall for Sun night into Monday. Expect more changes. Stay tuned.

posted: Feb 28 2009 at 4:10 am

[/weather/feb09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 28 Feb 2009 Philadelphia Winter Weather- Sat 10 PM Update Latest NAM model has snow starting late afternoon Sunday and continuing into Monday morning. 10-12 inches or more. Expect more changes. Stay tuned. posted: Feb 28 2009 at 9:45 pm [/weather/feb09] permanent link Philadelphia Weather Forecast- Sat 4PM Update The latest NAM model run from 1PM shows as much as 10 inches of snow by Monday morning. Again, this particular jet configuration is difficult to pin down. See discussion below. From earlier today: 11 AM Update: Latest NAM has precip to our east. The more accurate latest GFS has a significant snowstorm for Sunday night into Monday (6-9 inches in PHL) Still too many uncertainties with this storm. The cold front moved through last night and the frontal boundary has stalled to our south as expected. Here's where things become uncertain-- The predicted jet stream configuration continues to change from model run to model run. Last night's GFS had significant precipitation for us Sunday night. The 1 AM run of the GFS moved the precipitation to the east and we're on the fringe. Things keep changing significantly While I enjoy looking at the weather models, this is one of those times where I think accurate prediction is outside the realm of possibility. This scenario could easily result in a "black swan" (see the book by Taleb). So again we could get anything from a major snow storm to a sleet/ice storm to a mere dusting. Sometimes, the best forecast is knowing the situation is one that we can't know for sure. Or, too many known unknowns and too many unknown unknowns. Stay tuned. Sat 2/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. (The GFS has more clouds today than the NAM) Light sleet/freezing rain or snow possible before daybreak on Sunday. High near 35. Sun 3/1: Cloudy. Light sleet/freezing rain or sleet possible. Snow, starting late afternoon or early evening and at night. As much as 10" possible by Mon morning. High 34. High uncertainty. See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy posted: Feb 28 2009 at 4:06 pm [/weather/feb09] permanent link Philadelphia Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update 11AM Update: Latest NAM has precip to our east. The more accurate latest GFS has a significant snowstorm for Sunday night into Monday (6-9 inches in PHL) Still too many uncertainties with this storm. From earlier today: The cold front moved through last night and the frontal boundary has stalled to our south as expected. Here's where things become uncertain-- The predicted jet stream configuration continues to change from model run to model run. Last night's GFS had significant precipitation for us Sunday night. The 1 AM run of the GFS moved the precipitation to the east and we're on the fringe. Things keep changing significantly While I enjoy looking at the weather models, this is one of those times where I think accurate prediction is outside the realm of possibility. This scenario could easily result in a "black swan" (see the book by Taleb). So again we could get anything from a major snow storm to a sleet/ice storm to a mere dusting. Sometimes, the best forecast is knowing the situation is one that we can't know for sure. Or, too many known unknowns and too many unknown unknowns. Stay tuned. Sat 2/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. (The GFS has more clouds today than the NAM) Light sleet/freezing rain or snow possible before daybreak on Sunday. High near 35. Sun 3/1: Cloudy. Light sleet/freezing rain or snow. Possibly becoming heavier later in the afternoon and at night. High 34. High uncertainty. See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy posted: Feb 28 2009 at 11:02 am [/weather/feb09] permanent link Philadelphia Weather Forecast- Sat AM The cold front moved through last night and the frontal boundary has stalled to our south as expected. Here's where things become uncertain-- The predicted jet stream configuration continues to change from model run to model run. Last night's GFS had significant precipitation for us Sunday night. The 1 AM run of the GFS moved the precipitation to the east and we're on the fringe. Things keep changing significantly While I enjoy looking at the weather models, this is one of those times where I think accurate prediction is outside the realm of possibility. This scenario could easily result in a "black swan" (see the book by Taleb). So again we could get anything from a major snow storm to a sleet/ice storm to a mere dusting. Sometimes, the best forecast is knowing the situation is one that we can't know for sure. Or, too many known unknowns and too many unknown unknowns. Stay tuned. Sat 2/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. (The GFS has more clouds today than the NAM) Light sleet/freezing rain or snow possible before daybreak on Sunday. High near 35. Sun 3/1: Cloudy. Light sleet/freezing rain or snow. Possibly becoming heavier later in the afternoon and at night. High 34. High uncertainty. See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy posted: Feb 28 2009 at 8:41 am [/weather/feb09] permanent link Philadelphia Winter Weather- Sat AM Update Latest GFS model now has it colder with a major snowfall for Sun night into Monday. Expect more changes. Stay tuned. posted: Feb 28 2009 at 4:10 am [/weather/feb09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.