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Sat, 31 Jan 2009
Philadelphia Winter Weather-Sat PM [2]
Tonight's GFS model has joined with the NAM model in predicting a major snow for Philadelphia on Tuesday. 7-12 inches possible. Stay tuned.
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posted: Jan 31 2009 at 11:09 pm
[/weather/jan09] permanent link
Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow for Tues?
The models have been predicting a fast moving but deep coastal low, starting in the southeastern states Monday night and intensifying along the coastline on Tuesday. Today's NOGAPS and GFS models have kept this storm fairly far offshore, with only some light snow impacting the immediate Philadelphia area.
This morning's NAM model had a more westward track of the low and more snow for our area. The latest NAM data from tonight shows an even more impressive snow possible, 5-9 inches, for Philadelphia and areas west of Philadelphia for Tuesday. Even areas in NJ will likely receive snow on this one. The NAM did better today on the cold temperatures than the GFS.
The reliability of this winter's predictions from the models has been anything but stellar. However, this is the first storm this season that is developing in the southeastern US, (as compared to the previous ones that were expected to develop from impulses that developed in the the midwest). These previous scenarios (include Alberta Clippers in this category) are notorious for being handled poorly by the models.
This would be a more classic coastal nor'easter. I'm inclined to believe the NAM on this one.
That said, with the GFS and Navy NOGAPS still with an eastward track, confidence is still low for the forecast of snow on Tuesday. Look for updates tomorrow.
Sun 2/1: Partly cloudy/sunny and milder. High 44.
posted: Jan 31 2009 at 10:30 pm
[/weather/jan09] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sat AM Update
High pressure will build in again this weekend, but the amplified trough that has been with us for most of the past month will relax enough to allow some slightly above normal temperatures to be with us for Sunday.
On Monday, the upper trough will reamplify and a fast moving low is expected to develop in Georgia and move up and phase with an upper disturbance moving through PA developing a very deep coastal low. The NOGAPS and the GFS has this coastal low fairly far offshore, so it's unclear whether we will get much (or any) snow from this low in Tuesday. A more westward track or faster development will mean snow for us, starting before daybreak on Tuesday.
Sat 1/31: Mostly sunny, windy and very cold. High 29.
Sun 2/1: Partly cloudy/sunny and milder. High 44.
posted: Jan 31 2009 at 9:23 am
[/weather/jan09] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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