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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 09 Jan 2009
Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Fri Eve Update
See prior discussion from this afternoon for detail and trends.
Tonight's NAM confirms the afternoon model trends: Light snow in the morning, perhaps an inch, then a break in the action during the afternoon. Warm air comes in and rain/sleet in the evening and night. Temperatures rise at night. Changes back to a brief period of snow very early Sunday morning. Little accumulation in the PHL immediate area when all is said and done.
I'll update when the GFS data comes out about 10:45PM if there are changes.
Sat 1/10: Cloudy. Light snow in the morning. Very little in the afternoon. Rain and sleet at night. Temperatures rise during the day into the mid 30s by evening.
Sun 1/11: Becoming partly cloudy, windy and colder. Temps drop during the day through the low 30s.

posted: Jan 09 2009 at 9:27 pm

[/weather/jan09] permanent link

Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Fri Afternoon Update
There are now some significant changes and uncertainty with Saturday's snow. The trends from this morning's models have snow, mostly in the afternoon, mixing with sleet and rain late afternoon and evening. The models depict warmer air aloft moving in late in the afternoon and evening, before cold air moves back in after midnight. QPF (quantity of water falling) values were similar to last night's runs, but with most precipitation occuring later-- late afternoon and evening. So, there's a delay in the development of this storm and there's a trend towards less snow and more sleet and rain in the immediate PHL area.
To add to uncertainty, the latest 1 PM run of the NAM model has almost no precipitation at all during the day on Saturay and very little sleet and rain (and then snow) at night. Less than a coating! So there are strong trends that this 'storm' may become a big hype.
The afternoon model runs are notoriously fickle and erratic, so we'll have to wait for this evening's runs. The early GFS data will be available about 10:45 PM, the NAM an hour earlier. Check back about 10:45 PM.
Sat 1/10: Forecast very uncertain: Cloudy with flurries possible early, then snow more likely developing later in the afternoon into the evening, mixing with sleet and rain in and around PHL. Precip amounts are looking much lower and warmer temps may signficantly reduce accumulations. High 32.
Sun 1/11: Mostly sunny, windy and very cold. High 31.

posted: Jan 09 2009 at 4:12 pm

[/weather/jan09] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 09 Jan 2009 Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Fri Eve Update See prior discussion from this afternoon for detail and trends. Tonight's NAM confirms the afternoon model trends: Light snow in the morning, perhaps an inch, then a break in the action during the afternoon. Warm air comes in and rain/sleet in the evening and night. Temperatures rise at night. Changes back to a brief period of snow very early Sunday morning. Little accumulation in the PHL immediate area when all is said and done. I'll update when the GFS data comes out about 10:45PM if there are changes. Sat 1/10: Cloudy. Light snow in the morning. Very little in the afternoon. Rain and sleet at night. Temperatures rise during the day into the mid 30s by evening. Sun 1/11: Becoming partly cloudy, windy and colder. Temps drop during the day through the low 30s. posted: Jan 09 2009 at 9:27 pm [/weather/jan09] permanent link Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Fri Afternoon Update There are now some significant changes and uncertainty with Saturday's snow. The trends from this morning's models have snow, mostly in the afternoon, mixing with sleet and rain late afternoon and evening. The models depict warmer air aloft moving in late in the afternoon and evening, before cold air moves back in after midnight. QPF (quantity of water falling) values were similar to last night's runs, but with most precipitation occuring later-- late afternoon and evening. So, there's a delay in the development of this storm and there's a trend towards less snow and more sleet and rain in the immediate PHL area. To add to uncertainty, the latest 1 PM run of the NAM model has almost no precipitation at all during the day on Saturay and very little sleet and rain (and then snow) at night. Less than a coating! So there are strong trends that this 'storm' may become a big hype. The afternoon model runs are notoriously fickle and erratic, so we'll have to wait for this evening's runs. The early GFS data will be available about 10:45 PM, the NAM an hour earlier. Check back about 10:45 PM. Sat 1/10: Forecast very uncertain: Cloudy with flurries possible early, then snow more likely developing later in the afternoon into the evening, mixing with sleet and rain in and around PHL. Precip amounts are looking much lower and warmer temps may signficantly reduce accumulations. High 32. Sun 1/11: Mostly sunny, windy and very cold. High 31. posted: Jan 09 2009 at 4:12 pm [/weather/jan09] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.