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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 27 Jul 2007
Weekend Forecast- Fri PM
A closed upper low is moving across NY State. This low had been stalled over Michigan for the past week.
As the low slowly passes us by to our north, we'll become entrapped in the upper low circulation, allowing showers and thunderstorms to form over us, especially if sunshine breaks through the clouds. Difficult to time exactly, but the GFS has some light rain Saturday morning and heavier thunderstorms more likely after 3 PM Saturday.
Upper lows are notoriously difficult to forecast and the models haven't done too well this past week, so confidence in the forecast this weekend isn't extremely high. At times, the GFS has done well this week; other times the WRF-NAM. And sometimes, neither model got it right.
Sat 7/28: Partly cloudy early with a scattered, lingering shower in the morning. Some sun, then showers and thunderstorms become more likely after 3PM. Showers can occur almost anytime, though. High mid to upper 80s and humid.
Sun 7/29: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers/thunderstorms possible throughout the day. Precipitable water values (PWATS) very high which means rainfall can be heavy! Difficult to time this rainfall.

posted: Jul 27 2007 at 9:46 pm

[/weather/july07] permanent link

Weather Update - Fri PM
I've been taking a break this month from predicting the weather. It's a good thing, since the models have been doing a terrible job, especially this week, in predicting the movement and dissolution of the upper low over the Midwest.
The models are showing a heavy rain event sometime this weekend, especially for New Jersey. Our first thunderstorms will be moving through tonight.

posted: Jul 27 2007 at 4:19 pm

[/weather/july07] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 27 Jul 2007 Weekend Forecast- Fri PM A closed upper low is moving across NY State. This low had been stalled over Michigan for the past week. As the low slowly passes us by to our north, we'll become entrapped in the upper low circulation, allowing showers and thunderstorms to form over us, especially if sunshine breaks through the clouds. Difficult to time exactly, but the GFS has some light rain Saturday morning and heavier thunderstorms more likely after 3 PM Saturday. Upper lows are notoriously difficult to forecast and the models haven't done too well this past week, so confidence in the forecast this weekend isn't extremely high. At times, the GFS has done well this week; other times the WRF-NAM. And sometimes, neither model got it right. Sat 7/28: Partly cloudy early with a scattered, lingering shower in the morning. Some sun, then showers and thunderstorms become more likely after 3PM. Showers can occur almost anytime, though. High mid to upper 80s and humid. Sun 7/29: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers/thunderstorms possible throughout the day. Precipitable water values (PWATS) very high which means rainfall can be heavy! Difficult to time this rainfall. posted: Jul 27 2007 at 9:46 pm [/weather/july07] permanent link Weather Update - Fri PM I've been taking a break this month from predicting the weather. It's a good thing, since the models have been doing a terrible job, especially this week, in predicting the movement and dissolution of the upper low over the Midwest. The models are showing a heavy rain event sometime this weekend, especially for New Jersey. Our first thunderstorms will be moving through tonight. posted: Jul 27 2007 at 4:19 pm [/weather/july07] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.