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Tue, 13 Feb 2007
Storm Update - Tues 9:30 PM
Sleet and freezing rain are falling at this time in Philadelphia.
Latest NAM-WRF model data just became available. No change in the forecast. Freezing rain continues through early morning Wednesday in Philadelphia. Freezing rain will be heavy during the morning before changing to plain rain about 9 AM. Significant icing expected, especially north and west where temperatures may not get above freezing at all. Dangerous conditions possible.
Temperatures will rise above freezing in Philadelphia during the morning (about 8-9AM) changing freezing rain to all rain. Heavy rain expected with flooding likely. (Almost an inch of rain expected in a six hour period during the morning.) Latest GFS LAMP MOS data shows that temperatures will not get much above freezing in Philadelphia and will start dropping again after 1 PM Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures drop rapidly after 1 PM Wednesday with rain tapering off, likely changing to some snow. VERY WINDY. Things freeze over late Wednesday afternoon into evening. Bitter cold Wednesday night.
The GFS data is available in about an hour. I'm not staying up for it :)
posted: Feb 13 2007 at 9:38 pm
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Update - Tues 6 PM
No real change with the models run at 1 PM today with following differences: The GFS has little or no snow at the end of this storm Wednesday afternoon. The NAM has about 1 inch possible. Here's the forecast from this morning, basically still valid:
Temperatures rise in the upper atmosphere earlier in the evening, with snow mixing with sleet and changing over to sleet and then freezing rain between 7-10 PM tonight. (later north and west)
Freezing rain after midnight, becoming heavy freezing rain before daybreak Wednesday continuing into Wednesday morning, with possibly flooding rains. Windy.
Temperatures will rise above freezing in Philadelphia during the morning (about 8-9AM) changing freezing rain to all rain. Areas north and west may have a prolonged period of heavy severe freezing rain. WINDY. The freezing rain will create serious problems later tonight into Wed morning. Flooding Wednesday morning will compound these issues.
Temperatures drop rapidly after 1 PM Wednesday with rain tapering off, possibly some snow. VERY WINDY. Things freeze over late Wednesday afternoon into evening. Bitter cold Wednesday night.
The newest model runs will become available about 9:40 PM. I'll update at that time.
posted: Feb 13 2007 at 6:33 pm
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Weather Update- Tues 2PM
I'm updating this from an office computer...so not sure if this will format well. Somehow it is possible that the models aren't doing well with this storm. We'll have to see. Updates later if I make it home. :-)
I have had an opportunity to check the models and it seems that the NAM is much colder than the GFS. Both have similar amounts of water falling and both support a change to sleet and rain this evening. There is a sense that the secondary low off of the coast hasn't formed yet, so it remains to be seen how this is going to play out.
posted: Feb 13 2007 at 1:13 pm
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About this light snow this morning...
The GFS from last night has this light snow this morning (the NAM doesn't). Not much is really expected to accumulate before this afternoon and later this afternoon. (despite its forboding appearance) As energy shifts to the coastal storm, this light snow should lighten up mid-day before becoming heavier later in the afternoon.
posted: Feb 13 2007 at 7:29 am
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What's wrong with the local news/weather?
I was watching the local news last night. They have the reporters standing there with snow shovels talking about a snowstorm, despite the fact that you're really going to need a boat/ice-breaker on Wednesday. Their own weather forecasters say something different than their own reporters. Go figure. No wonder people are disillusioned and confused with the local weather reports.
To toot my own horn, I got rid of the snow emphasis with my forecast Sunday evening. Accuweather and the local stations took a lot longer to realize this is really going to be a sleet, ice and rain deal.
posted: Feb 13 2007 at 7:03 am
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Storm Update- Tues Early AM
Looking over last night's 1 AM re-run of the models. The NAM-WRF has become similar to the early evening GFS, with light snow with small accumulation this afternoon into this evening, temperatures warming aloft to change-over to sleet early evening, followed by a prolonged period of sleet and then heavy rain and this rain will be freezing rain until sometime Wednesday morning. Serious icing likely.
Here's what's new with the 1 AM models: The NAM has prolonged the precipitation, similar to the 7PM GFS into the afternoon/evening Wednesday with a changeover to snow and a rapid drop temperature Wed afternoon and evening. Several inches possible toward the end of the storm Wed evening, along with a freeze-over of standing water late. Instead, the 1 AM GFS has all the rain/freezing rain ending abruptly in the early afternoon Wednesday after 2 inches of water fall in a six hour period Wed morning! Wow.
With winter weather, the average of the two models often works very well and that translates into the a similar forecast I issued late last night. Here it is again, with modifications:
Light snow Tuesday afternoon...it cranks out .18 inches water (1-2 inches snow) by evening Tuesday. Temperatures rise in the upper atmosphere earlier in the evening, with snow mixing with sleet and changing over to sleet occuring between 7-10 PM Tuesday.
Sleet becomes freezing rain starting after midnight, becoming heavy. Very heavy rain, probably freezing rain, before daybreak Wednesday continuing into Wednesday morning, possibly flooding rains. Windy.
Temperatures will rise above freezing in Philadelphia during the morning, changing freezing rain to all rain. Areas north and west may have a prolonged period of heavy severe freezing rain. WINDY.
Temperatures drop rapidly about 1 PM Wednesday with rain becoming snow again. VERY WINDY. Possible 2-3 inches snow late Wednesday afternoon into the evening Things freeze over late Wednesday afternoon into evening. Bitter cold Wednesday night.
Still a roller coaster. Next model runs will be out later this morning. I have Internet access at work, but I may not be able to update this website until this evening (if I make it home! :) Updates this evening or earlier if I can.
posted: Feb 13 2007 at 6:50 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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