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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sun, 11 Feb 2007
Snow turning to Freezing Rain- Sunday PM Update
This afternoon's model runs continue the idea that the coastal low will now form right over the Delmarva area Tuesday night, too close to allow much cold air at 5000 feet to remain entrenched in the storm in Philadelphia.
While the snow will start in the late afternoon Tuesday, allowing about 1-2 inches by rush hour Tuesday, and another 1-2 inches Tuesday evening, temps in the upper atmosphere will warm, causing a change to sleet and freezing rain after midnight. By Wednesday morning, heavy rain will be falling, according to the current models. The big question will be the temperature of the ground/surface. Cold air trapped at the surface from weeks of cold temperatures may allow a significant ice storm to occur in our area before temps rise above freezing later Wednesday. Then cold air comes back in Wednesday night, producing more freezing.
Right now, the real concern is an ice storm instead of a snow storm.
This is a big shift from yesterday, where the storm was to form in along the NC coast. Updates later and tomorrow. By the way, next weekend looks very very cold.

posted: Feb 11 2007 at 7:57 pm

[/weather/feb07] permanent link

Change in forecast- Snow turning to Rain? - Sun Afternoon
The trend towards warm air moving into our area due to the low pressure developing closer to the coastline seems to be evident in this morning's GFS and NAM-WRF models. Last night's statistical and NAM models suggested this trend.
Based on this morning's models, light snow, starting during the late afternoon on Tuesday will turn to sleet and then heavy rain by Wednesday morning. Based on this scenario, icing, especially in the northern and western suburbs is possible, but snow accumulations will be very limited and difficult to call. So stormy conditions but you may not need the snow plow.
This storm is still 3 days away...we've all seen that things can change dramatically in this time frame. Stay tuned! :-)

posted: Feb 11 2007 at 12:45 pm

[/weather/feb07] permanent link

Winter Storm Discussion Update - Sun AM
Low pressure is expected to move just to our south and then redevelop off the coastline into a significant coastal storm.
Last night's GFS and NOGAPS models continue the trend towards heavy snow in our area from late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The GFS statistical ensemble, a series 12 model runs with variations in inputs, has its mean 1.00 inch QPF value into our area by Wednesday, indicating that more than 10 inches of snow possible by Wednesday afternoon.
Some of the statistical members suggest the possibility of warm air moving into the storm, changing the snow to mixed precip, but the statistical mean keeps it all snow. The NAM-WRF has similar QPF values of more than 1 inch water, also with some warm air causing a changeover. I tend to favor the GFS, but a changeover to a mix may reduce accumulations.
This storm is still 3 days away...we've all seen that things can change dramatically in this time frame. Stay tuned! :-)

posted: Feb 11 2007 at 7:31 am

[/weather/feb07] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sun, 11 Feb 2007 Snow turning to Freezing Rain- Sunday PM Update This afternoon's model runs continue the idea that the coastal low will now form right over the Delmarva area Tuesday night, too close to allow much cold air at 5000 feet to remain entrenched in the storm in Philadelphia. While the snow will start in the late afternoon Tuesday, allowing about 1-2 inches by rush hour Tuesday, and another 1-2 inches Tuesday evening, temps in the upper atmosphere will warm, causing a change to sleet and freezing rain after midnight. By Wednesday morning, heavy rain will be falling, according to the current models. The big question will be the temperature of the ground/surface. Cold air trapped at the surface from weeks of cold temperatures may allow a significant ice storm to occur in our area before temps rise above freezing later Wednesday. Then cold air comes back in Wednesday night, producing more freezing. Right now, the real concern is an ice storm instead of a snow storm. This is a big shift from yesterday, where the storm was to form in along the NC coast. Updates later and tomorrow. By the way, next weekend looks very very cold. posted: Feb 11 2007 at 7:57 pm [/weather/feb07] permanent link Change in forecast- Snow turning to Rain? - Sun Afternoon The trend towards warm air moving into our area due to the low pressure developing closer to the coastline seems to be evident in this morning's GFS and NAM-WRF models. Last night's statistical and NAM models suggested this trend. Based on this morning's models, light snow, starting during the late afternoon on Tuesday will turn to sleet and then heavy rain by Wednesday morning. Based on this scenario, icing, especially in the northern and western suburbs is possible, but snow accumulations will be very limited and difficult to call. So stormy conditions but you may not need the snow plow. This storm is still 3 days away...we've all seen that things can change dramatically in this time frame. Stay tuned! :-) posted: Feb 11 2007 at 12:45 pm [/weather/feb07] permanent link Winter Storm Discussion Update - Sun AM Low pressure is expected to move just to our south and then redevelop off the coastline into a significant coastal storm. Last night's GFS and NOGAPS models continue the trend towards heavy snow in our area from late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The GFS statistical ensemble, a series 12 model runs with variations in inputs, has its mean 1.00 inch QPF value into our area by Wednesday, indicating that more than 10 inches of snow possible by Wednesday afternoon. Some of the statistical members suggest the possibility of warm air moving into the storm, changing the snow to mixed precip, but the statistical mean keeps it all snow. The NAM-WRF has similar QPF values of more than 1 inch water, also with some warm air causing a changeover. I tend to favor the GFS, but a changeover to a mix may reduce accumulations. This storm is still 3 days away...we've all seen that things can change dramatically in this time frame. Stay tuned! :-) posted: Feb 11 2007 at 7:31 am [/weather/feb07] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.