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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Wed, 31 Jan 2007
Winter Storm Update- Again- Wed PM
This is going to be one tough storm to predict. Things have gone back and forth. What seemed like a clear cut snow to rain event is more complicated.
The latest NAM and GFS data has just become available. The NAM has the storm missing us to our south.
The GFS now has a more intense storm moving closer, with snow turning to a mix Friday morning. Possibly 3-4 inches possible before a mix with sleet and rain late Friday morning. Areas just to the west of Philadelphia will have a slower changeover. Even more complicated, cold air will come into this region early afternoon on Friday, with the mix changing back to snow.
Frankly, I think nailing the snow amounts with this storm is an impossibility, except to say that it will be anywhere from 1-3 inches and will vary significantly with location.
This all assumes that the GFS is correct. The NAM and old NGM show an almost complete miss for Philadelphia, where the storm will be to our south and east.
I'll try to nail this down tomorrow.

posted: Jan 31 2007 at 11:05 pm

[/weather/jan07] permanent link

Winter Storm Update- Change in Forecast
Today's models continued with the trend of last night's NOGAPS model- a greater bulk of cold air will suppress the path of the storm to our south, resulting in less precipitation, especially north and west and greater likelihood of mostly snow for Philadelphia and just north.
This means that for the Philadelphia area, the changeover to rain will be less likely; it will likely be all snow or a slight mix. Areas to the north and west will have much lesser amounts.
Latest GFS models show about .20 to .30 inches of water falling (QPF value) which may translate into 2, maybe 3 inches of snow. Snow will start very light late Thursday afternoon with a bit heavier amounts before daybreak on Friday and will taper off Friday morning, giving a total of 2, maybe 3 inches. Very cold temps will follow over the weekend and next week.
Should the storm intensify more or slow down a bit more, amounts could increase. Or, if more cold air builds in, the precip could be further suppressed to our south. I'll update after 11 PM this evening.
If you enjoy these forecasts, please visit my web site and click on the Yahoo text advertisement at the top to increase my ratings with Yahoo. Thanks!

posted: Jan 31 2007 at 6:04 pm

[/weather/jan07] permanent link

Winter Storm Outlook-Wed AM
Here are the changes since my last forecast yesterday:
First, this is not going to be a major storm. There's little phasing of the jet streams and the storm is a fast mover. Total QPF values (water falling in any form) is about 0.10 inches to 0.25 inches water.
All operational models and statistical means from the ensemble models continue to show a change to sleet/freezing rain and rain during the late night hours of Thursday. Atmospheric thickness values do not support all snow, although it will start as snow.
Some trends, especially with the NAVY NOGAPS model, has the storm scooting out to our south almost missing us.
Here's the bottom line -- if the storm continues to hug the coast, the heavier precip will change to rain; if it scoots out to our south, any precip will be quite light and remain as snow. Either way, we're not looking at a major storm, just a lousy commute on Friday morning.
I'll update later tonight.
If you enjoy these forecasts, please visit my web site and click on a display advertisement to increase my ratings with Yahoo. Thanks!

posted: Jan 31 2007 at 7:10 am

[/weather/jan07] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 31 Jan 2007 Winter Storm Update- Again- Wed PM This is going to be one tough storm to predict. Things have gone back and forth. What seemed like a clear cut snow to rain event is more complicated. The latest NAM and GFS data has just become available. The NAM has the storm missing us to our south. The GFS now has a more intense storm moving closer, with snow turning to a mix Friday morning. Possibly 3-4 inches possible before a mix with sleet and rain late Friday morning. Areas just to the west of Philadelphia will have a slower changeover. Even more complicated, cold air will come into this region early afternoon on Friday, with the mix changing back to snow. Frankly, I think nailing the snow amounts with this storm is an impossibility, except to say that it will be anywhere from 1-3 inches and will vary significantly with location. This all assumes that the GFS is correct. The NAM and old NGM show an almost complete miss for Philadelphia, where the storm will be to our south and east. I'll try to nail this down tomorrow. posted: Jan 31 2007 at 11:05 pm [/weather/jan07] permanent link Winter Storm Update- Change in Forecast Today's models continued with the trend of last night's NOGAPS model- a greater bulk of cold air will suppress the path of the storm to our south, resulting in less precipitation, especially north and west and greater likelihood of mostly snow for Philadelphia and just north. This means that for the Philadelphia area, the changeover to rain will be less likely; it will likely be all snow or a slight mix. Areas to the north and west will have much lesser amounts. Latest GFS models show about .20 to .30 inches of water falling (QPF value) which may translate into 2, maybe 3 inches of snow. Snow will start very light late Thursday afternoon with a bit heavier amounts before daybreak on Friday and will taper off Friday morning, giving a total of 2, maybe 3 inches. Very cold temps will follow over the weekend and next week. Should the storm intensify more or slow down a bit more, amounts could increase. Or, if more cold air builds in, the precip could be further suppressed to our south. I'll update after 11 PM this evening. If you enjoy these forecasts, please visit my web site and click on the Yahoo text advertisement at the top to increase my ratings with Yahoo. Thanks! posted: Jan 31 2007 at 6:04 pm [/weather/jan07] permanent link Winter Storm Outlook-Wed AM Here are the changes since my last forecast yesterday: First, this is not going to be a major storm. There's little phasing of the jet streams and the storm is a fast mover. Total QPF values (water falling in any form) is about 0.10 inches to 0.25 inches water. All operational models and statistical means from the ensemble models continue to show a change to sleet/freezing rain and rain during the late night hours of Thursday. Atmospheric thickness values do not support all snow, although it will start as snow. Some trends, especially with the NAVY NOGAPS model, has the storm scooting out to our south almost missing us. Here's the bottom line -- if the storm continues to hug the coast, the heavier precip will change to rain; if it scoots out to our south, any precip will be quite light and remain as snow. Either way, we're not looking at a major storm, just a lousy commute on Friday morning. I'll update later tonight. If you enjoy these forecasts, please visit my web site and click on a display advertisement to increase my ratings with Yahoo. Thanks! posted: Jan 31 2007 at 7:10 am [/weather/jan07] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.