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Sun, 03 Dec 2006
First Winter Snow Update - Sun PM
The latest NAM-WRF model data just became available.... consistent with 0.18 inches QPF water falling as snow before daybreak, about 7AM Monday morning. Similar values for NE Philadelphia (0.15) but significantly less for Chester county= Pottstown (0.02)
Temperatures at or just above freezing will reduce accumulations as previously mentioned. Areas just outside the city may have little or nothing.
High temps on Monday will likely be only in the upper 30s!
posted: Dec 03 2006 at 9:51 pm
[/weather/dec06] permanent link
Snow Update - Sunday Afternoon
The afternoon model runs are in....the GFS has ZERO precipitation for Philadelphia and the NAM-WRF has 0.18 inches water for the gridpoint PHL airport.
We're on the western fringe of the expect precip. The last time we had this discrepancy between zero (GFS) and .18 inches (NAM), the NAM was more accurate.
So I'm going with some light wet snow, ending between 7 and 8 AM on Monday. Accumulations are not expected to be much (if colder this could be 2-3 inches of snow), but surface temperatures are expected to be just above freezing, so little will accumulate except on colder surfaces. Atmospheric thickness levels do support snow in Philadelphia, so it will likely fall as snow, not rain or sleet.
I'll update later, about 10PM, if things change.
For the long range, the rest of the week will be cold and quiet. Probably cold through next weekend. We begin a warming trend next week again.
posted: Dec 03 2006 at 5:19 pm
[/weather/dec06] permanent link
Light Snow for Monday
As I've been saying since Thursday, the models have been predicting a coastal storm and we've been on the western fringe of the probability path for the storm's precipitation. The statistical models have all included chance snow for our area.
The latest GFS and NAM-WRF models just available this morning show varying amounts of light snow for our area on or about daybreak Monday. The NAM has 0.19 inches water and the GFS has it a bit colder and less precip. (This is for PHL- Philadelphia airport....even lesser amounts north and west.)
Looking at the statistical ensemble forecast from the GFS, the statistical versions have increased the probability of snow for Philadelphia. So getting some snow here is now likely, especially early Monday morning starting before daybreak. Temperatures will be at or above freezing, so the precip probably will fall as snow with a bit of accumulation, from as little as a dusting to less than an inch. Areas in the Philadelphia suburbs may have nothing.
Any snow or flurries we do get will end during the rush hour.
I'll update later.
Sun 12/3: Partly cloudy/sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds late in the afternoon. High upper 40s. Chance of light snow or flurries late Sunday night into Monday morning.
posted: Dec 03 2006 at 10:45 am
[/weather/dec06] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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