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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sun, 12 Nov 2006
Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM
The GFS and WRF did well in predicting that the heavy rain would just miss Philadelphia. (Heavy rain continues to fall in NJ and DE). The closed low will be slow to exit, with residual showers/drizzle through much of Monday.
For the coming week, a lot of clouds around, except Wednesday. Thursday is looking like very wet with a heavy rainstorm affecting us. The weekend looks colder and dry.

posted: Nov 12 2006 at 6:21 pm

[/weather/nov06] permanent link

Weekend Forecast- Sun AM
The cold front is right on our door step this morning, but is being slowed by a low pressure system developing along the front. An upper low pressure will close off right just to our south, enhancing the development of the surface low.
The exact placement of the cut-off upper low and the surface development continues to be slightly uncertain. More importantly, the models have the path of the maximum moisture plume (and heaviest rain) being west of Philadelphia and then re-configuring around the low. Even though the NWS is calling for a flood watch in Philly, the actual model rain totals are very low (WRF model) and less than an inch (GFS model) in Philadelphia proper. My guess is that the NWS is playing it safe.
While it WILL rain in Philly, especially after noon, rain totals predicted by the models in Philadelphia are much less than areas immediately to the west of Philadelphia. Of course, an slight change in moisture plume can change things; hence the caution of the NWS.
Sun 11/12: Cloudy with rain starting about noon in Philadelphia (earlier to our west). Becoming breezy. High 56.

posted: Nov 12 2006 at 8:46 am

[/weather/nov06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sun, 12 Nov 2006 Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM The GFS and WRF did well in predicting that the heavy rain would just miss Philadelphia. (Heavy rain continues to fall in NJ and DE). The closed low will be slow to exit, with residual showers/drizzle through much of Monday. For the coming week, a lot of clouds around, except Wednesday. Thursday is looking like very wet with a heavy rainstorm affecting us. The weekend looks colder and dry. posted: Nov 12 2006 at 6:21 pm [/weather/nov06] permanent link Weekend Forecast- Sun AM The cold front is right on our door step this morning, but is being slowed by a low pressure system developing along the front. An upper low pressure will close off right just to our south, enhancing the development of the surface low. The exact placement of the cut-off upper low and the surface development continues to be slightly uncertain. More importantly, the models have the path of the maximum moisture plume (and heaviest rain) being west of Philadelphia and then re-configuring around the low. Even though the NWS is calling for a flood watch in Philly, the actual model rain totals are very low (WRF model) and less than an inch (GFS model) in Philadelphia proper. My guess is that the NWS is playing it safe. While it WILL rain in Philly, especially after noon, rain totals predicted by the models in Philadelphia are much less than areas immediately to the west of Philadelphia. Of course, an slight change in moisture plume can change things; hence the caution of the NWS. Sun 11/12: Cloudy with rain starting about noon in Philadelphia (earlier to our west). Becoming breezy. High 56. posted: Nov 12 2006 at 8:46 am [/weather/nov06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.