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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sun, 23 Jul 2006
An Email to a Weatherguy Follower...
Someone wrote to me about the forecasts this weekend...here is my reply:
The models have done terribly with this weekend's weather. They over-predicted the precipitation yesterday, especially in Philly. The front was supposed to be off shore this morning, but it's not...it's still in central NJ and the upper air front is still over Philly. Yesterday turned out much better, here at the shore, than previously expected.
I wasn't too confident about either model solution if you recall (in previous private email)......50 mile error in frontal position can be a major difference. And there were more errors than just position of the front...all the dynamics were off.
Last night's WRF has heavy showers this afternoon here at the shore...while the 2 AM rerun (06 UT) has it offshore. Your guess is as good as mine.
Usually the weather is much more deterministic...not this current weekend.

posted: Jul 23 2006 at 6:34 am

[/weather/jun06] permanent link

Sunday Forecast Change- Sun AM
The front has hung up a bit closer to us than previously expected. (It was supposed to be off the coastline by now.) The surface front currently lies somewhere in the middle of New Jersey, while the frontal boundary higher up in the atmosphere is lagging back over Philadelphia. What a bummer!
The upper winds are still from the SW, bringing more moisture over us. Some sun possible, but more clouds will linger today than previously expected and the chance of showers will remain with us as well for much of the morning into early afternoon. High today: 76 with dewpoints lower in the mid 60s.
For the Shore: Some sun, but then becoming cloudy with showers possible throughout much of the day. Additional thundershower showers in the afternoon may be heavy. High 79.

posted: Jul 23 2006 at 5:55 am

[/weather/jun06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sun, 23 Jul 2006 An Email to a Weatherguy Follower... Someone wrote to me about the forecasts this weekend...here is my reply: The models have done terribly with this weekend's weather. They over-predicted the precipitation yesterday, especially in Philly. The front was supposed to be off shore this morning, but it's not...it's still in central NJ and the upper air front is still over Philly. Yesterday turned out much better, here at the shore, than previously expected. I wasn't too confident about either model solution if you recall (in previous private email)......50 mile error in frontal position can be a major difference. And there were more errors than just position of the front...all the dynamics were off. Last night's WRF has heavy showers this afternoon here at the shore...while the 2 AM rerun (06 UT) has it offshore. Your guess is as good as mine. Usually the weather is much more deterministic...not this current weekend. posted: Jul 23 2006 at 6:34 am [/weather/jun06] permanent link Sunday Forecast Change- Sun AM The front has hung up a bit closer to us than previously expected. (It was supposed to be off the coastline by now.) The surface front currently lies somewhere in the middle of New Jersey, while the frontal boundary higher up in the atmosphere is lagging back over Philadelphia. What a bummer! The upper winds are still from the SW, bringing more moisture over us. Some sun possible, but more clouds will linger today than previously expected and the chance of showers will remain with us as well for much of the morning into early afternoon. High today: 76 with dewpoints lower in the mid 60s. For the Shore: Some sun, but then becoming cloudy with showers possible throughout much of the day. Additional thundershower showers in the afternoon may be heavy. High 79. posted: Jul 23 2006 at 5:55 am [/weather/jun06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.