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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Tue, 18 Jul 2006
Weather Update- Uncertain Period Ahead- Tues PM
The thunderstorms remained fired up, even through Philadelphia this evening. Still much uncertainty in the upcoming forecast period.....
For the short range, the models are showing showers and thunderstorms redeveloping on Wednesday, mid day. Temperatures will be lower, as some cooler air is coming in behind this stalling front.
The latter part of the week and weekend still has a very uncertain forecast....the GFS model has already changed to include a chance of showers on Sunday.
There's a tropical system off the coast that needs watching. Additionally, there's much uncertainty about the position of the stalled frontal boundary for the balance of the week. Expect changes in the forecast each day. I think the best we can do is a 24-36 hour forecast for the time being.

posted: Jul 18 2006 at 7:19 pm

[/weather/jun06] permanent link

Inconsistent Model Forecasts- Tues AM
I've noticed that in the past week, the model forecasts have been inconsistent and not too accurate...examples of this were the thunderstorms on Saturday and the temperature forecast for yesterday. The actual temperatures were a category below the forecast levels.
Tonight's and Wednesday's weather is another example of last minute changes in the models. A front will pass through sometime late evening, bring with it showers and thunderstorms. The WRF has the heavier activity fading out around Philadelphia tonight. Much of it disappears as it gets into Jersey.
The latest change is that this front is now forecast to hang up a bit just south of us tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may redevelop late tonight and linger into Wednesday afternoon. This is a significant forecast change, where several days ago, no showers or rain was forecast here for much of the week.
With all of these shore range changes, any forecast for the weekend weather is very low confidence. There is uncertainty about how far the front will drop. We'll have to see where this frontal boundary actually ends up before attempting an extended forecast for the weekend.

posted: Jul 18 2006 at 7:25 am

[/weather/jun06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Tue, 18 Jul 2006 Weather Update- Uncertain Period Ahead- Tues PM The thunderstorms remained fired up, even through Philadelphia this evening. Still much uncertainty in the upcoming forecast period..... For the short range, the models are showing showers and thunderstorms redeveloping on Wednesday, mid day. Temperatures will be lower, as some cooler air is coming in behind this stalling front. The latter part of the week and weekend still has a very uncertain forecast....the GFS model has already changed to include a chance of showers on Sunday. There's a tropical system off the coast that needs watching. Additionally, there's much uncertainty about the position of the stalled frontal boundary for the balance of the week. Expect changes in the forecast each day. I think the best we can do is a 24-36 hour forecast for the time being. posted: Jul 18 2006 at 7:19 pm [/weather/jun06] permanent link Inconsistent Model Forecasts- Tues AM I've noticed that in the past week, the model forecasts have been inconsistent and not too accurate...examples of this were the thunderstorms on Saturday and the temperature forecast for yesterday. The actual temperatures were a category below the forecast levels. Tonight's and Wednesday's weather is another example of last minute changes in the models. A front will pass through sometime late evening, bring with it showers and thunderstorms. The WRF has the heavier activity fading out around Philadelphia tonight. Much of it disappears as it gets into Jersey. The latest change is that this front is now forecast to hang up a bit just south of us tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may redevelop late tonight and linger into Wednesday afternoon. This is a significant forecast change, where several days ago, no showers or rain was forecast here for much of the week. With all of these shore range changes, any forecast for the weekend weather is very low confidence. There is uncertainty about how far the front will drop. We'll have to see where this frontal boundary actually ends up before attempting an extended forecast for the weekend. posted: Jul 18 2006 at 7:25 am [/weather/jun06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.