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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 27 May 2006
Weekend Weather Update- Sat PM
Winds turn to the north and then the northeast on Sunday. Drier air, clear skies and cooler temperatures, especially at the shore.
My Jersey shore webcam is now operational. Currently pointing west, over the bay area of Ventnor NJ.
Sun 5/28: Sunny and cooler. High 78.
Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85. (Some of the models suggest some clouds, even some showers, especially at the Shore on Monday....will have to watch this.)
Shore forecast: Sunday: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cooler on Sunday. Winds will pickup at the beach mid day from the east and some clouds may move in during the afternoon.

posted: May 27 2006 at 7:31 pm

[/weather/may06] permanent link

Technical Weather Discussion
Wow, I was really impressed with the WRF model today! Those of you at the NJ shore (Atlantic City area, etc) probably noticed we had a rain shower this afternoon. Only the WRF, specifically a version of the WRF, predicted this instability shower in this area. (The GFS had predicted this and then backed off yesterday.) The GFS and NAM MOS had virtually no chance of showers today.
I've been watching the WRF (Weather Research Forcast) Model for a few months now. The WRF is being groomed to replace the NAM (North American Mesocale) and I believe that the parallel run of the NAM, referred to the NAM-X is really the WRF model being run.
More specifically, I'm using a particular run of the WRF model, that uses the initial conditions of the NAM but different physics packages, specifically the Betts-Miller convection physics and Mellor-Yamada turbulence physics. (Gee, I really don't understand the equations for these things, but I'm glad others do. Somehow, I always think of Betts-Miller as Bette Midler. LOL :-)
I've gotten excited about other models before, only to find that they're good only with certain patterns. But the geniuses behind the numerical modeling in the NWS really are amazing.
The only source I have of this model version is the evening model run, which doesn't become available until the morning, making it 12 hours old. Wish I had more frequent updates, but if it's as accurate as it seems, maybe it's not needed. I'll continue to use this model in the coming months and we'll see how good it really is! Stay tuned!

posted: May 27 2006 at 6:39 pm

[/weather/may06] permanent link

Weekend Weather Update- Sat
Drier air continues to move in. Increasing sun today, and sunny through the weekend! (The WRF continues to show light showers possible in NJ Saturday afternoon; the GFS/NAM have it dry.)
My Jersey shore webcam is now operational. Currently pointing west, over the bay area of Ventnor NJ.
Sat 5/27: Some lingering clouds early morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 82.
Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 78.
Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85.
Shore forecast: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cool on Sunday. Highs in the near 70 for all three days. Sunny skies. Ocean water temperatures are still in the 50s.

posted: May 27 2006 at 7:43 am

[/weather/may06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 27 May 2006 Weekend Weather Update- Sat PM Winds turn to the north and then the northeast on Sunday. Drier air, clear skies and cooler temperatures, especially at the shore. My Jersey shore webcam is now operational. Currently pointing west, over the bay area of Ventnor NJ. Sun 5/28: Sunny and cooler. High 78. Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85. (Some of the models suggest some clouds, even some showers, especially at the Shore on Monday....will have to watch this.) Shore forecast: Sunday: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cooler on Sunday. Winds will pickup at the beach mid day from the east and some clouds may move in during the afternoon. posted: May 27 2006 at 7:31 pm [/weather/may06] permanent link Technical Weather Discussion Wow, I was really impressed with the WRF model today! Those of you at the NJ shore (Atlantic City area, etc) probably noticed we had a rain shower this afternoon. Only the WRF, specifically a version of the WRF, predicted this instability shower in this area. (The GFS had predicted this and then backed off yesterday.) The GFS and NAM MOS had virtually no chance of showers today. I've been watching the WRF (Weather Research Forcast) Model for a few months now. The WRF is being groomed to replace the NAM (North American Mesocale) and I believe that the parallel run of the NAM, referred to the NAM-X is really the WRF model being run. More specifically, I'm using a particular run of the WRF model, that uses the initial conditions of the NAM but different physics packages, specifically the Betts-Miller convection physics and Mellor-Yamada turbulence physics. (Gee, I really don't understand the equations for these things, but I'm glad others do. Somehow, I always think of Betts-Miller as Bette Midler. LOL :-) I've gotten excited about other models before, only to find that they're good only with certain patterns. But the geniuses behind the numerical modeling in the NWS really are amazing. The only source I have of this model version is the evening model run, which doesn't become available until the morning, making it 12 hours old. Wish I had more frequent updates, but if it's as accurate as it seems, maybe it's not needed. I'll continue to use this model in the coming months and we'll see how good it really is! Stay tuned! posted: May 27 2006 at 6:39 pm [/weather/may06] permanent link Weekend Weather Update- Sat Drier air continues to move in. Increasing sun today, and sunny through the weekend! (The WRF continues to show light showers possible in NJ Saturday afternoon; the GFS/NAM have it dry.) My Jersey shore webcam is now operational. Currently pointing west, over the bay area of Ventnor NJ. Sat 5/27: Some lingering clouds early morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 82. Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 78. Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85. Shore forecast: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cool on Sunday. Highs in the near 70 for all three days. Sunny skies. Ocean water temperatures are still in the 50s. posted: May 27 2006 at 7:43 am [/weather/may06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.