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Miscellaneous
Fri, 10 Feb 2006
Winter Weather Update- Friday 11 PM
The latest GFS data just rolled in. Total QPF = .93 inches water or about 10-13 inches snow.
The GFS has snow starting earlier than the NAM, with some snow possible by mid afternoon, heavy at night and ending around noon on Sunday.
At this point, we'll average the GFS and NAM which would give Philadelphia 9-11 inches of snow by noon on Sunday.
The next model run that we can hang our hats on will be available later Saturday morning.
posted: Feb 10 2006 at 10:58 pm
[/weather/feb06] permanent link
Winter Weather Update- Friday 9:45 PM
The very latest NAM data just became available. For the gridpoint of NE Philadelphia Airport, the QPF= 0.73 inches water or about 9-10 inches of snow for Philadelphia. Areas to the east, in NJ, have much higher amounts, over 12 inches.
The snow doesn't start until 5-7 PM on Saturday. Most of the day is cloudy and dry. The snow doesn't end until late morning or noon on Sunday.
The more accurate GFS model data will become available about 10:45 PM tonight (My source of GFS data has not been reliable lately.) I'll update around that time.
posted: Feb 10 2006 at 9:51 pm
[/weather/feb06] permanent link
Winter Storm Update- 8 PM Fri
The 1 PM reruns of the GFS and NAM models has increased the amount of snow forecast. Currently the NAM has .57 inches water which translates into about 6-9 inches snow.
The GFS afternoon model has 1.21 inches water or 14-16 inches of snow. (Gridpoint is NE Philadelphia airport)
If this continues, we'll have at least 1 foot of snow by Sunday afternon.
Currently, the models have light snow starting between 3 and 5 PM, becoming heavy after 7 PM on Saturday night and continuing through noon on Sunday!
Sat 2/11: Cloudy during much of the day, snow starting late afternoon. High 30.
Sun 2/12: Snow ending around noon, then cloudy windy and cold. High 28.
The next NAM model output will be available between 9:30 and 10 PM; the GFS might be available as early as 10:45 PM. I'll update later.
posted: Feb 10 2006 at 8:14 pm
[/weather/feb06] permanent link
Winter Storm Update 2 PM Fri
Looking over more of the model data, the precipitation has shifted later with much of it happening Saturday night and Sunday morning.
There are significant differences in amounts between the GFS and the NAM. The NAM has as little as 4-5 inches and the GFS has as much as 10-12 inches total. The NOGAPS is in the lower range as well. Often a blend works, so 6-8 continues to be my call right now for Philadelphia. Central New Jersey will have more.
It is impossible to predict the exact amount of snow at this time. Next major model runs will be out between 9:30 and 11 PM tonight.
Sat 2/11: Cloudy during much of the day, snow starting late afternoon. High 30.
Sun 2/12: Snow ending late morning, then slow clearing, windy and cold. High 28.
I'll update later.
posted: Feb 10 2006 at 1:44 pm
[/weather/feb06] permanent link
Winter Storm Update 11 AM Fri
Latest GFS and NAM data available shows only 0.55 QPF values (GFS) translating into 6-8 inches for Philadelphia, more south and east.
The latest models has the snow coming fairly late in the afternoon on Saturday, and heavy at night, ending Sunday morning. Much of daytime Saturday will be dry.
Sat 2/11: Cloudy during much of the day, snow starting late afternoon. High 30. A total of 6-8 inches of snow in Philadelphia (NE Philadelphia airport gridpoint), based on current models.
Sun 2/12: Snow ending early morning, then slow clearing, with some sun possible in the afternoon. High 28.
I'll update later.
posted: Feb 10 2006 at 11:05 am
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Winter Storm Update 6 AM Fri
The GFS and NAM continue to predict a coastal storm for us, Saturday afternoon into about daybreak Sunday. The NOGAPS has come on-board with this scenario, but all model runs from last night have the storm slightly east of its previous track. The Statistical GFS Ensemble average still has a more westward track than the operational GFS, though
As a result, QPF values have fallen to about .60 inches water in PHL, according to the GFS. With high ratios, that would translate into 7-8 inches of snow. Also, the mix, previously predicted for NJ will not occur, in fact, NJ may have the highest snow totals with this track, well over a foot.
The NOGAPS and European models continue to be more progressive with the storm, reducing amounts.
Sat 2/11: Cloudy with light snow as early as noon, becoming heavier later afternoon. Becoming windy. Snow totals about 8 inches, but exact amounts still uncertain. High 30.
Sun 2/12: Snow ending early morning, then slow clearing, with some sun possible in the afternoon. High 29.
I'll update later.
posted: Feb 10 2006 at 6:36 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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